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  • Luis G. ha respondido al debate Ted SeeksQuality en el foro Estrategia hace 7 meses, 1 semana

    Pongo juntos, los últimos movimientos de su cartera. Si bien los suele comentar en hilos de Chowder, ahora los explica mejor en el que ha creado acerca de su patrimonio. El enlace lo puse recientemente. Pego los comentarios por si un día decide borrar todo otra vez.

    1.- «Trade executed on February 26:

    * Sold out of SBUX at $71, aside from 100 shares that had been optioned previously at $67.50. (Might as well let that option run to expiration, though I could also choose to roll it forward at that time.)

    * Put most of the proceeds towards HD at $184.I have to thank SBUX for the 21% IRR over the past year and a half, but the increase in leverage has left me less comfortable than when I initiated the position in May 2017 and their strong outlook needs to be balanced against a very high valuation. The CEO running for POTUS would also be a risk factor, at least in the short term. I can return at some future date if the valuation or my comfort level with the leverage improves.

    HD is clearly a higher quality company, also an industry leader, and while their growth potential is a bit lower, the dividend and valuation are 30% superior. With the 32% dividend increase, HD is now in my «sweet zone» for owning companies: a dividend in the 2.5% to 3.0% range, moderate growth outlook, and a valuation between 16x and 20x earnings. A-grade credit. Industry leader. It is hard to own too many companies like this!

    If you review the metrics for SBUX, you will see it misses on all counts but the last. Being an industry leader is a great recommendation, arguably the most important of the above metrics, but it is otherwise not the kind of company I seek to emphasize.»

    2.- «Trade executed on March 1 in taxable account:

    * Sold out of RHHBY @ $34.73
    * Added to NVS @ $91.47 (2/3 of the proceeds)

    We have owned NVS since 2010, a global leader in pharmaceuticals in six different disease areas (most prominently Oncology), as well as eye care (Alcon) and generics (Sandoz). Novartis was even more diversified when we first invested, however they have focused their portfolio and consolidated to four operating divisions.

    Analyst coverage of foreign companies is often limited, however Novartis is carried by all of the research sources that I use. This helps me have confidence in the investment and my ability to understand the business dynamics at some level.

    More recently, we have been looking to expand the number of high quality Health Care companies we hold, and (largely on a valuation analysis from Morningstar) chose to initiate a small position in RHHBY. As best I can tell it is also a high quality global pharmaceutical company, with (naturally) a somewhat different product portfolio from NVS, so I was comfortable including it for diversification. We have done well enough with that investment, and I have no concerns about the company or its operations.

    However, it was brought to my attention yesterday that Novartis owns a 33% stake in Roche. This stake is larger than some of their own divisions! (Roche is a slightly larger company than Novartis.) I prefer not to hold overlapping interests like that, and have better information on Novartis, so selling RHHBY was an easy decision. Our allocation plan was calling for a trim, so I put 2/3 of the proceeds into NVS and will keep the remainder as cash — our savings account was getting light and we have various large bills coming due over the next three months.The tax consequence of the sale is minimal, given the size of the position and the modest appreciation in RHHBY over the last two years.»

    OJO: Puede que también venda NVS por temas fiscales ya que recientemente, en Fidelity le han informado ya no cubren la recuperación del exceso de fiscalizad suiza (35%).

    3.- «Trade executed on March 8 in an IRA:

    Added to CVS @ $52.41

    While CVS is a long-term conviction holding for me, these shares are intended as a trade. I plan to sell if the price rebounds to the $60-$62 range within the next few months. And if it doesn’t? I may sell anyways. Short-term trades are not intended to be held for years.

    4.- «Trade executed on March 15 in an IRA:

    Trimmed DIS @ $114.35
    Added to HD @ $180.87

    As previously mentioned, I expect to build HD over time, now that its valuation and dividend profile are a better fit for my portfolio goals. DIS remains a conviction position, our third largest, however it is up 10% since the last addition (while the market has been flat) and the outlook has been recently reduced. They have a strong future, but I do not anticipate rapid growth yet.

    This move doubles the dividend yield on these dollars, moving laterally on both valuation and quality, while arguably improving the near-term growth prospects. Equally important, it takes advantage of a rise in one of our largest holdings to build our newest high-quality holding in size. All else equal, I strive for balance!»

    5.- «Trade executed on March 18 in an IRA:

    Initiate position in DLR @ $114.91.

    It seems by all accounts to be a well-run company with a bit of an operating moat, and it operates in a different area than my other REITs: O, VTR, and WPC. While this initial purchase is small, less than 1/4 the size of the other REITs, I hope to bring it up to size over the course of the next two years. In the meantime I will follow it more closely than I have in the past, watching either for opportunities to buy at a better valuation or (hopefully not) for red flags that I missed in the initial screening process.»