• Luis G. ha respondido al debate Cardinal Health (CAH) en el foro Estados Unidos hace 8 meses, 2 semanas

    Jvincen2, del blog de Chowder:

    «There are five different areas in that field manufacturers, distributors, pharmacy, pharmacy benefit managers, and payers – insurance companies or Medicare/Medicaid.
    It’s the boomers of which I’m one some like CAH are looking at going forward and so for Cardinal Health it hinges on a fast-aging population driving U.S healthcare spending, especially on pharmaceuticals and medical supplies, much higher over the coming decade and beyond.
    The U.S. healthcare sector is expected to grow 5.6% annually for the next decade, about double the rate of overall economic growth.
    And the «pinch a penny» view I have of CAH is nothing new and been the norm for many years already. Will that penny need to get pinched even harder ? could be and as for the future time will tell but at some point it stops too or there is simply no one left to pinch anything. It’s fine to reinvent the wheel so long as the wheel is still round and also has enough spokes left to work right.
    Right now CAH sources more than 400,000 medical supplies and drugs from over 5,000 pharmaceutical and medical supply companies and as I said are involved daily in the majority of our hospitals and larger medical facilities.
    People have no real idea what those supply chain logistics involve and seem to me to stay firmly focused to the pricing noise without taking into account the much bigger picture of it all and it certainly is a heck of a lot more complicated problem then simply saying you get to much for this or that and CAH is one who gets it right.
    Some things below from SSD about CAH and I got the number worng the other day it’s 88 but that’s still a very safe SSD number. The first one reminds me of some others we have discussed over the years before where everyone says gosh almighty they better do something different then when they do they say what the heck did they do that for. Either way I plan to stick around awhile longer as SSD seems to think there are many moving parts going on here but none of them are screaming at you to leave, not yet anyways.

    1.Management’s plan to diversify into higher-margin medical equipment and wholesaling has its own risks but could return the company to solid high-single digit growth beyond 2019.

    2.CAH has generated positive free cash flow in each of the last 10 years, which is a sign that CAH’s business has consistently earned enough cash to cover its spending needs, giving CAH more flexibility to maintain its dividend over time.

    3.Cardinal Health (CAH) has a Dividend Safety Score of 88, which means its dividend appears to be much safer than most other companies’. Here’s what’s working for and against the safety of CAH’s dividend:
    Over the past year, CAH has paid out 38% of its earnings as a dividend. This is a reasonably safe payout ratio for most companies and leaves CAH with cushion to pay the dividend should business conditions unexpectedly worsen.
    According to analysts, CAH’s payout ratio over the next year is expected to be 38%, which is fairly consistent with its level today and suggests the safety of the company’s dividend won’t change much in the near future.

    And so far in 2019 ? in the first quarter ER they earned $1.29 and in the second quarter just announced they repeated those results and earned $1.29 once again and have now said they feel comfortable reaching the higher end of the previous guidance given. That makes three ER beats in a row and positive guidance for the entire 2019 FY. Is there a huge «pricing» iceberg coming up ? could be but think I will stick around and see if they can steer around it anyways. SQ likes CVS and in some ways CAH and CVS are tied at the hip when meds are involved.»