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  • Luis G. ha respondido al debate Filososofía Chowder en el foro Estrategia hace 8 meses, 2 semanas

    Buen comentario. Siempre recalcando seguridad y la composición de la cartera.

    «Speaking of watch lists. I devised my son’s list during the Great Recession when everything around us was falling apart. Most of the people involved in dividend growth investing have made their list in a bull market where a rising tide lifts all boats.

    Trust me when I say this. When you devise a list during a recession, it’s a different list than one might have 5 years into a bull market. During a recession you see what’s working and what isn’t, you see how important defense is. You see how companies sensitive to the economy get crushed. You see where the dividend cuts come from in bad times, and you devise your list accordingly.

    I’ve been through 3 recessions myself and the first two nearly wiped me out because I wasn’t properly positioned for recessions. Me own a utility? Are you kidding me? That’s for old folks! Yeah, I paid a price for that arrogance and I was ready for the last recession. A utility is the first company I purchase in any new portfolio, young or old.

    People laughed at me for having KO in a young folk portfolio (no growth!), they weren’t laughing during the last recession.

    You always hear young folks should go for growth, you have time to make up for it. I found out the hard way I needed that time after nearly getting wiped out twice. That’s why 50% of my son’s portfolio is defensive. He can go for some growth, but still needs to cover his backside. This is why I like a ratio of 50%-25%-25%Defensive 50% … This includes consumer staples, utilities and healthcare.
    Cyclical 25% … This includes consumer discretionary, financial’s and REIT’s.
    Sensitive 25% … This includes industrial’s, energy and technology.

    So, if you follow this blueprint and you want to own some industrial’s, when you are limited to 25% in the sector most sensitive to the economy, you’ll select the ones you are more comfortable with. You may only be able to own 3 or 4 unless you don’t want to own more than one energy and technology company so that you can own 5 or 6 industrial’s, you may have to keep your position sizing low, less than a full position because you don’t want too much exposure going into the next recession.

    Most of the dividend cuts, suspended dividends and companies going bankrupt during the recession came from the sensitive and cyclical sectors, therefore I’m careful on how much exposure I have there.

    Just some food for thought.»