«After a busy December, I’ve been sitting back a bit the last few weeks. Our last portfolio purchases were AAPL on December 21 and CVS on December 24.
I find that I am reluctant to add to our larger positions at this time, as they are already substantial. Thus I will be taking a closer look at our smaller positions, possibly eliminating some while adding to the rest.
We have 11 positions that are less than 2.0% of the portfolio at this time. From smallest to largest: BRK.B, RHHBY, CSCO, XOM, GPC, SYY, T, PEP, VFC, NSRGY, UTX.
BRK.B — presently 1% of the portfolio, will look to add to this gradually over time until it is in the 3% range.
RHHBY — I have limited knowledge and spare analysis on this one. I like the company okay, and it has turned in a small profit over the last year and a half, but I don’t understand the business dynamics enough to build this one further — and thus will consider eliminating it entirely.
CSCO — this falls into the, «how the heck haven’t I built it yet?» bucket. I need to push some money this way soon.
XOM — Own it because I feel I’m supposed to own at least one energy/resources stock. Solid company, the industry leader. Not interested in building it, but if I sold it then I would likely feel compelled to buy it again.
GPC — Solid company but not really something I want to build. It can remain for now, but I’m willing to sell if I get a good price. I might sell before then to raise money to add elsewhere. 30 minutos más tarde pone «Sold out of GPC. I was actually thinking of doing so in November, and wrote options to that effect, but then the market correction got in the way. A nice 12% IRR over a 13-14 month holding period, so I’m obviously pleased with the results. It is a good company. But I don’t love retail/distributors in general and have other Industrials that I would preferentially own if I could find space in my allocation for them. »
SYY — One of my favorite companies. If T is a utility because its revenue is stable, then SYY is an uber-utility. Steady growth and a 2.5% dividend, promising a ~9% forward total return that you can bank on. May add to this when we make our Roth contribution.
T — A cheap stock, but not one I have a heck of a lot of conviction in. They seem to be doing the right things. I own enough of this one.
PEP, VFC, NSRGY, and UTX are all intentionally held at/around the 2.0% level. I would be willing to build PEP further, but do not feel any urgency to do so. VFC is not a great fit for my style and so is limited to this level. NSRGY is a fine company, but like RHHBY I have limited data on it. UTX is on freeze until the spinoff (and likely for at least half a year after).
Thus I intend to add to BRK.B, CSCO, and SYY as funds permit. I will consider selling RHHBY and GPC, though neither is urgent. The rest can stay as they are.»
Respuesta de Chowder acerca de GPC
«In a young folk portfolio, I consider GPC a «must have» for the long term. I plan on increasing this position in not only my son’s account, but I do have it in some older folk portfolios as well.
I love having access to the consumer dollar and that means I have to have exposure to retail. It’s those NAPA auto parts stores that are recession resistant, and I love owning recession resistant businesses, especially since I have been through 3 recessions.
Since you Ted are a more active investor, I have to set portfolios up for those who will be more passive once I’m not able to manage their portfolios for them, so I have to think about companies that do better than others during poor economic times.
New car sales go way down during recessions, people fix up their cars and hold them longer as a result. thus GPC is one of my favorite consumer discretionary companies, right there along side of VFC»
«I may be a more active investor, but that does not enter into this one. I am not selling GPC as a trade and do not believe it is overvalued at this time. I have no quality concerns. It simply isn’t a conviction position for me.
Like you, I want «access to the consumer dollar». I emphasize both Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary, believing that you can find some superior brands with staying power in that latter category. My Consumer Discretionary stocks include a large position in DIS and ~2% positions in SBUX, NKE, and VFC — all of which I believe have top-notch brand strength. AAPL also has some characteristics of a Consumer Discretionary company.
We also own SYY, which (regardless of categorization) shares many of the same characteristics of GPC. Our first purchase of SYY was 6.5 years ago. Our first purchase of GPC was just over 1 year ago. Partly for that reason, and partly because I believe SYY is somewhat more defensive in nature, I am more comfortable with SYY and intend to build it — while I do not see GPC as one of my top five ideas in the sector.Nothing against GPC. If I were to own ten stocks in the sector, it would likely be one of them.
I suppose I should note that I have different expectations for different sectors. When looking at Consumer Discretionary stocks, my foremost concern is the long term strength of the brand. I accept that the share price might get hammered in a recession (the sector tends to be somewhat volatile) but that doesn’t bother me.
My overall portfolio weighting is sufficiently defensive that it will tend to hold up better than average in a recession. That is good enough for me, so I don’t need to push that trait further.
I’m not looking for growth in Consumer Staples. I’m not looking for recession resistance in Consumer Discretionary. I’m not looking for dividend yield in Healthcare. Though I do try to consistently look for quality. :)»