Ted SeeksQuality – Pág. 4

Foros Estrategia Ted SeeksQuality - Pág. 4

Este debate contiene 63 respuestas, tiene 11 mensajes y lo actualizó  Luis G. hace 3 días, 11 horas.

Viendo 4 publicaciones - del 61 al 64 (de un total de 64)
  • Autor
    Publicaciones
  • #49721

    Ruindog
    Offline
    Topics: 35
    Replies: 1227

    “In my opinion, your best bet for continued dividend growth is with companies that have NOT leveraged up over the past decade. Periods of increased leverage need to be followed by periods of paying down debt, which holds back growth, earnings growth, and especially dividend growth. This is part of why I am usually not interested in merger situations. Even when successful, they are often followed by a few years of consolidation”

    Un optimista es un pesimista mal informado

    5 users thanked author for this post.
    #49933

    Ruindog
    Offline
    Topics: 35
    Replies: 1227

    Looking at KHC, GIS, and SJM… Which is the strongest?

    GIS is doing okay on cash flow, with $2.0B FCF vs. $1.2B in dividends over the TTM, but they are not yet making any real headway on the debt. It spiked three quarters ago and hasn’t really budged since. Operating margins are down since FY17, though some of that may be product mix with the acquisition.

    The KHC financials for the last quarter still have not been uploaded by Morningstar. Trapping Value expresses concern about their margins. Their cash flow has also been a clear concern, and their debt continues to increase.

    SJM is also facing some margin pressure, with operating margins down to 16.1% over the TTM (they just reported the third quarter of FY19) from 17.1% in FY18. Yet once again, that includes a recent acquisition that may skew comparability. FCF is down over the last couple years, but still more than sufficient to support the dividend. And they’ve made noticeable progress on the debt over the last two quarters, bringing LT debt down by almost 15% and total liabilities down by 7%. That is more than twice the progress that GIS is making on THEIR debt load.

    GIS has been rewarded for the vision demonstrated in their plan for Blue Buffalo. I’ve questioned the ability of SJM management to execute, and they have badly missed guidance multiple times over the last few years. Still, the past-looking financials look at least as good for SJM as they do for GIS — and both are in better shape than KHC as far as I can tell.

    Un optimista es un pesimista mal informado

    2 users thanked author for this post.
    #49939

    Luis G.
    Offline
    Topics: 5
    Replies: 385

    “Recent moves in a “young folk” portfolio (IRA) that I advise: Sell SBUX, Add HD. I see this as a step up in quality (now that SBUX has increased its leverage) as well as a step up in yield/valuation. It is possible that SBUX has the stronger growth prospects, but I’m not convinced of that. Especially if the chairman/founder gets involved with politics.

    Wrapped leftover dollars from that trade, as well as cash in the account, into add-on purchases of AXP and UPS. Nothing particularly timely about either one, but they were among the smallest of the existing positions and seem to be a reasonable value. Working to build in size.

    In the account owner’s other IRA, I recommended available cash be invested into an add-on purchase of UTX. Similar reasoning. (That trade will likely be executed in a couple days, it is still short by $100 or so of the amount needed.)

    Trades in another “young folk” taxable account I advise:
    Add-on purchase of INTC (was actually February’s buy that never got executed).
    Initiate position in HD (March’s buy)

    That account was started with ‘core’ positions in AAPL, BRKB, DIS, JNJ, MDT, MMM, PG, and UL. Over the last half year we’ve made two (smaller) purchases each in CSCO, INTC, and T. HD is the latest addition.

    This account is a bit of a juggling act, as I intend to build out AND up at the same time. The eight core positions are more than twice the size of the four supporting positions, but they may still be built further. Over time (years) I hope to end up with 20+ sizeable positions in this portfolio. But that will take time! Meanwhile, just one bite of the apple at a time.”

    […]

    “I advise four different young-folk portfolios, ranging from 40s down to teens… But not sure it is worth a permanent blog?

    My approach to these accounts is very simple — buy, hold, build. Two of the accounts do not permit selling under any condition. A third permits selling only on serious quality concerns (and I am making every effort to avoid the potential for those through screening the buys). A fourth can be traded, if appropriate, but it is important to keep the focus there on dividend growth rather than sliding into a trading mentality.

    When starting a new portfolio, I prefer to begin from a handful of positions. Chowder seems more willing to own 30 small positions and build each of them up over time. I would rather begin from 5-8 positions and build out-and-up simultaneously. Picture a triangular “staircase”, extended one block at a time. Each round you add to both the breadth and height.

    It may be risky to have a portfolio concentrated in just a few stocks, but I’m a firm believer that it is the dollars that matter not the percents. For a younger person that will be adding over many years, the bulk of their lifetime savings has yet to be contributed to the account. In some sense you can view that as a “cash” allocation. Thus both of my kids started with just one stock — JNJ — which still represents close to half of their portfolio. They may never need to buy another share of JNJ (aside from dividend reinvestment), but the future contributions will build the rest of the portfolio up in size to match. Eventually!

    As you can tell from the list above, I prefer to begin from “classic growth” stocks with a defensive slant, building out first to “growthier” names and then to higher-yield names. Building from the core out. I know Chowder prefers a different direction.”

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, GIS, HD, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, UNA, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    #50047

    Luis G.
    Offline
    Topics: 5
    Replies: 385

    Pongo juntos, los últimos movimientos de su cartera. Si bien los suele comentar en hilos de Chowder, ahora los explica mejor en el que ha creado acerca de su patrimonio. El enlace lo puse recientemente. Pego los comentarios por si un día decide borrar todo otra vez.

    1.- “Trade executed on February 26:

    * Sold out of SBUX at $71, aside from 100 shares that had been optioned previously at $67.50. (Might as well let that option run to expiration, though I could also choose to roll it forward at that time.)

    * Put most of the proceeds towards HD at $184.I have to thank SBUX for the 21% IRR over the past year and a half, but the increase in leverage has left me less comfortable than when I initiated the position in May 2017 and their strong outlook needs to be balanced against a very high valuation. The CEO running for POTUS would also be a risk factor, at least in the short term. I can return at some future date if the valuation or my comfort level with the leverage improves.

    HD is clearly a higher quality company, also an industry leader, and while their growth potential is a bit lower, the dividend and valuation are 30% superior. With the 32% dividend increase, HD is now in my “sweet zone” for owning companies: a dividend in the 2.5% to 3.0% range, moderate growth outlook, and a valuation between 16x and 20x earnings. A-grade credit. Industry leader. It is hard to own too many companies like this!

    If you review the metrics for SBUX, you will see it misses on all counts but the last. Being an industry leader is a great recommendation, arguably the most important of the above metrics, but it is otherwise not the kind of company I seek to emphasize.”

    2.- “Trade executed on March 1 in taxable account:

    * Sold out of RHHBY @ $34.73
    * Added to NVS @ $91.47 (2/3 of the proceeds)

    We have owned NVS since 2010, a global leader in pharmaceuticals in six different disease areas (most prominently Oncology), as well as eye care (Alcon) and generics (Sandoz). Novartis was even more diversified when we first invested, however they have focused their portfolio and consolidated to four operating divisions.

    Analyst coverage of foreign companies is often limited, however Novartis is carried by all of the research sources that I use. This helps me have confidence in the investment and my ability to understand the business dynamics at some level.

    More recently, we have been looking to expand the number of high quality Health Care companies we hold, and (largely on a valuation analysis from Morningstar) chose to initiate a small position in RHHBY. As best I can tell it is also a high quality global pharmaceutical company, with (naturally) a somewhat different product portfolio from NVS, so I was comfortable including it for diversification. We have done well enough with that investment, and I have no concerns about the company or its operations.

    However, it was brought to my attention yesterday that Novartis owns a 33% stake in Roche. This stake is larger than some of their own divisions! (Roche is a slightly larger company than Novartis.) I prefer not to hold overlapping interests like that, and have better information on Novartis, so selling RHHBY was an easy decision. Our allocation plan was calling for a trim, so I put 2/3 of the proceeds into NVS and will keep the remainder as cash — our savings account was getting light and we have various large bills coming due over the next three months.The tax consequence of the sale is minimal, given the size of the position and the modest appreciation in RHHBY over the last two years.”

    OJO: Puede que también venda NVS por temas fiscales ya que recientemente, en Fidelity le han informado ya no cubren la recuperación del exceso de fiscalizad suiza (35%).

    3.- “Trade executed on March 8 in an IRA:

    Added to CVS @ $52.41

    While CVS is a long-term conviction holding for me, these shares are intended as a trade. I plan to sell if the price rebounds to the $60-$62 range within the next few months. And if it doesn’t? I may sell anyways. Short-term trades are not intended to be held for years.

    4.- “Trade executed on March 15 in an IRA:

    Trimmed DIS @ $114.35
    Added to HD @ $180.87

    As previously mentioned, I expect to build HD over time, now that its valuation and dividend profile are a better fit for my portfolio goals. DIS remains a conviction position, our third largest, however it is up 10% since the last addition (while the market has been flat) and the outlook has been recently reduced. They have a strong future, but I do not anticipate rapid growth yet.

    This move doubles the dividend yield on these dollars, moving laterally on both valuation and quality, while arguably improving the near-term growth prospects. Equally important, it takes advantage of a rise in one of our largest holdings to build our newest high-quality holding in size. All else equal, I strive for balance!”

    5.- “Trade executed on March 18 in an IRA:

    Initiate position in DLR @ $114.91.

    It seems by all accounts to be a well-run company with a bit of an operating moat, and it operates in a different area than my other REITs: O, VTR, and WPC. While this initial purchase is small, less than 1/4 the size of the other REITs, I hope to bring it up to size over the course of the next two years. In the meantime I will follow it more closely than I have in the past, watching either for opportunities to buy at a better valuation or (hopefully not) for red flags that I missed in the initial screening process.”

     

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, GIS, HD, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, UNA, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

    1 user thanked author for this post.

Foros Estrategia Ted SeeksQuality - Pág. 4

Viendo 4 publicaciones - del 61 al 64 (de un total de 64)

Debes estar registrado para responder a este debate.