Ted SeeksQuality – Pág. 3

Foros Estrategia Ted SeeksQuality - Pág. 3

Este debate contiene 47 respuestas, tiene 10 mensajes y lo actualizó  Preikestolen hace 3 días, 11 horas.

Viendo 8 publicaciones - del 41 al 48 (de un total de 48)
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  • #48640

    Luis G.
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    Topics: 5
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    Parece que también asesora a gente.

    “In a portfolio I advise for an older individual, desiring quality and stability but with no particular need for income…

    Adding to JNJ, SYY, DIS, HON, LOW. Not recommending additions to HRL or MKC at this time based on valuation. (Might catch them next round regardless.)

    Positions sorted by size after the adds: JNJ, PG, ABT, AXP, SYY, AAPL, CSCO, DIS, HON, MMM, CVS, LOW, UPS, HRL, MKC. It is a concentrated portfolio, but just a fraction of this individual’s assets, so the position sizes do not present undue risk”

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, FLO, GIS, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

    #48641

    Luis G.
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    “Yes, I believe that CEF leverage is buying on margin. It can be a low-cost way of securing loans. UTG is listed by Morningstar as having a -30% cash position, which I believe means that they have borrowed $30 for every $100 of investor principal — i.e. $100 of investor principal controls $130 of investments (and $30 of debt).

    Margin leverage is on top of the leverage employed by the underlying companies. Moreover, it happens closer to the investor. If you invest on margin, you can get wiped out by a marginal call. Wiped Out. The broker sells off your assets and (maybe) gives you a little back after the loan is paid off. Unless you are very young, you cannot ever recover from that kind of a loss.

    If a company borrows too much, that position might get wiped out. But the impact on the investor is presumably much less.

    Margin leverage is commonly used by overconfident professionals to boost the returns on investment schemes that are guaranteed not to lose money. Then along comes a “black swan” that their models didn’t anticipate, and they are wiped out. Wiped Out. LTCM was run by Nobel prize winners. Hard to find anybody more experienced, knowledgeable, and professional than that. Wiped Out.

    Speaking for myself, if I want a risky investment, I would rather invest in something a bit more speculative and/or volatile. I don’t need to take a safe investment and turn it into a risky investment through the use of leverage.

    By the way, I know two family members who have been wiped out by margin calls. (Happily young enough that they can recover from that.) I have absolutely no interest in traveling down that road. I’m an idiot, and thus I like to keep my investing REALLY simple. I will let those who think they have a “sure thing” get wiped out.”

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, FLO, GIS, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

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    #48642

    Luis G.
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    Replies: 363

    “REITs are sensitive to the economy. It isn’t so much interest rates (though that is a factor), but their ability to maintain earnings and dividends through a recession. Most REITs reduced their dividend in the last recession, and there is no guarantee that the survivors of the last will also survive the next.

    We will eventually have 20% of our retirement assets invested in what I consider “income equities”. I intend 10% in utilities, 5% in REITs, and 5% in the TIAA Real Estate Account, which is effectively a private (and conservatively managed) REIT.”

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, FLO, GIS, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

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    #48643

    Luis G.
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    Conversación acerca de tener un porcentaje de 15% o mayor de REIT en cartera.

    ” While sector classification is clearly an oversimplification (and somewhat arbitrary), there are real correlations between similar companies. Owning PG, UL, CL, CLX, and KMB is not true diversification, because their product lines overlap heavily. They are all subject to similar market forces.

    Quality is important, but quality is largely the ability to survive troubles. It is not a guarantee that you are unaffected by those troubles. If you own several quality companies that are all exposed to a single risk, they can all be hit at the same time — and you are leaning VERY heavily on the quality. Even quality companies can cut dividends, they just have a wider margin of safety before that happens.

    So nothing against owning 15%+ in REITs, if you wish, but consider if they all share some risk factor? What happens if 15% of your portfolio hits the skids all at the same time?

    On the other hand, it is a broad category. Perhaps their risk factors are substantially different? That is for you to decide — don’t lean too heavily on arbitrary sector classifications.”

    Responde Chowder:

    “You speak about diversity against market forces, so old fashion in my view. When I’m looking for diversity, I’m looking against company specific forces. I want to have sector exposure but want to be protected against any of the companies I own going bankrupt.

    I don’t care about market forces hitting a sector, that’s temporary. Tough times don’t last, tough companies do. Let the sector get hit, as long as I own the best of the best, I firmly believe I’m okay over the long run. I can deal with temporary drawdowns, I simply want to avoid the permanent ones.”

    Ahora Ted:

    “I am a firm believer in owning the best of the best, but there are some people who also invest in companies with BBB- credit ratings. Those are NOT the best of the best, and in fact are in danger of a dividend cut if faced with sufficient adversity. There are only ~25 companies with a 50+ year dividend streak. All other companies have cut or frozen their dividends in my lifetime.

    And in fact we were talking about REITs, not a defensive sector, where credit ratings tend to be lower and dividend cuts are much more common than in Consumer Staples. Most REITs cut their dividend in the last recession, and while owning quality biases the odds in your favor, I definitely don’t see it as a guarantee.

    If somebody wants to have over 15% of their portfolio in triple-net REITs, who am I to object? But economic pressures affect sectors as groups, and dividend cuts tend to come as bunches. There were not many energy companies cutting their dividends in 2008-2009. There were not many banks cutting their dividends in 2015. Sector classification is imperfect, but the concept of shared risk factors is meaningful.

    I prefer not to have more than 15% in any of the sensitive sectors, and aim for diversity of risk even WITHIN the sensitive sectors. Quality, yes, but also diversity. And I know you practice this in your own investing, especially in the sensitive sectors. You do not concentrate all of your Industrial positions in Aerospace, for example.

    All I am saying is know your risk. Avoid anything that could do real damage to your portfolio goals.”

    […]

    “In my own sector diversification, I begin by deciding what kinds of business I want to own in what balance, and then aim for the “best of class” representatives of each. Thus my approach to diversification never keeps me away from quality! I suspect the greater danger is to those who go heavily after a sector because they feel it is a “bargain”. If they are right, then they do very nicely. If they misjudge the sector dynamics, they can end up holding a whole lot of cheap junk that was NOT selected on the basis of quality.

    All investments have risks. The concept of diversification isn’t to eliminate these risks, but to limit the exposure of the portfolio to any SPECIFIC risk, whether company-specific or sector-wide.”

     

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, FLO, GIS, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

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    #48644

    Luis G.
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    Replies: 363

    Este comentario es para enmarcar:

    “When people read the comments and actions of others, they tend to filter those comments through their own perspective and situation. As a result, they often reach very strange conclusions. I talk about my moves, putting them out there for consideration and criticism, however I operate quite differently from others — and thus the motivations ascribed can be very much off-target.

    I talk a lot about “risk”. To me, “risk” is most fundamentally the chance that our portfolio fails to meet our needs. I tend to take a much broader view of risk than others, including the risk that my needs exceed what I am planning for. Thus it isn’t quite as simple as aiming for an income target and then standing put. While achieving my planned needs is essential, any margin of safety above and beyond that is also potentially risk-reducing. Perhaps the most serious risk of this type is the possibility that one or both of us will need expensive long-term care, perhaps for many years. It is unrealistic to plan an income stream that will accommodate that level of expenditure, thus it could be necessary to spend down the portfolio in this scenario. Total return matters for this purpose.

    There is also the risk, one that @Bob Wells talks about, that my death or mental deterioration will prevent me from continuing to manage the portfolio. Educating my wife and children in the plan and process are perhaps the best answer to this form of risk.

    Risk assessment need not imply a high likelihood of an adverse event. On my optimistic days, I expect that there is a 99.9% chance that we will have enough to be comfortable. (I don’t honestly see how that isn’t going to happen.) On my pessimistic days, I figure that there is a 5% chance that I’m overlooking something huge. On my cynical days, I figure there is a 25% chance that I am grossly overconfident. 😉 Still, I expect we will be fine. I actually lean optimistic in this kind of stuff.

    Risk assessment need not be emotional. For me it is more an intellectual question, “What could go wrong, and how can I minimize that chance?” People talk an awful lot about “fear”, which in this context is foreign to me. When it storms, I am anxious that the roof might leak. When I drive in the winter, I am anxious that the cars around me might do something crazy. I’ve been dealing with anxiety since a nasty auto accident a few years ago, a low-level continuing stressor. But finances? Not something I get anxious about. I’ve done my best to bullet-proof our financial plan, and have no fear of it going wrong. Whatever happens will happen, and I will trust in providence.

    Moreover, while I work in terms of “total return”, planning and projecting future position and portfolio values, I am not sensitive to market prices. My valuation spreadsheet estimates a future value four or five years out. This works from projected earnings, projected growth, dividend yield, and quality metrics. The calculation does not include the current share price, except in the final step where it estimates the five-year total return. Thus when the market goes down, that final column turns very green. (When it goes up, it fades towards red, moderated by any earnings upgrades.) Half the time I don’t even know the current share price of one of my holdings. Until people teased me with the comments that O was rising, I would have guessed that it was in the high 50s. I watch only a handful of stocks closely, those that I might be trading based on valuation. The rest just do whatever they are going to do, without my attention.

    Recognize also that a five-year Total Return projection is not highly sensitive to share price. Or to almost anything else, for that matter. Right now, working from $200, I project a 6.5% annualized return for MMM. This is not going to change substantially if the earnings estimates move by a percent or two. For example, bumping the 2019 earnings estimate from $10.78 to $11.00 only changes the forward return by 0.3%. Increasing the projected growth from 7.3% to 9.0% increases the forward return by just 1.2% Dropping the share price by $10 increases it by 1.1%. So these numbers move slowly, mostly wiggling back and forth within a broad range of inaction. I am not going to dump MMM just because it has a forward return of 6%, and I am not going to “back up the truck” just because it rises to 8%. The valuation-based moves in the portfolio happen outside the 4% to 10% range. (In the past I may have tried too hard to optimize. At this point I am more content to watch and wait.)

    So while I do find the occasional “back up the truck” conviction buy, it tends to be the result of longer-term moves rather than an ephemeral price correction. I was talking about NKE a few years back — and was talking about them for at least a year before the price moved. CVS still hasn’t gone anywhere. These days I am mentioning AAPL, DIS, and INTC. These trends are measured in years, not months. But once a stock shows as a strong buy on my spreadsheet, there are really only two ways it can exit. Either a severe downgrade in quality or forward expectations or a substantial rally. Looking at numbers won’t help you anticipate the former, you have to consider the business plan and your confidence in the business plan.

    Thus I would encourage other investors to relax a little, especially if your investments are causing you stress. You don’t need to pounce on every 5% move, and in fact the best values are often found among those stocks that HAVEN’T moved much recently. (Think DIS or CVS.) And it is pointless to worry about what is going to happen. Try to consider the risks dispassionately, weighing and balancing them against your own situation, then set a portfolio plan that is designed to meet your needs with minimal risk. After that? Implement the plan.

    I spend a lot more time commenting here than I do actually looking at my investments. I spend a lot more time managing the daily/weekly bookkeeping, entering grocery receipts, logging/recording income, paying bills… I do update the prices on my spreadsheet weekly, sometimes also mid-week if there has been a large market move, but that takes just 1-2 minutes and rarely leads to further action. I do update my projection spreadsheet quarterly, which takes perhaps five minutes per stock, but again it rarely leads to substantial changes. When the plan does call for trimming or adding, I have a handful of positions to consider, and it is usually a matter of 30 minutes to figure out how to implement the plan.

    Do you have a clear plan that tells you what you should be doing in any situation? If not, consider writing one? Once that is established, the rest is easy and emotion-free. Good luck!”

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, FLO, GIS, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

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    #48645

    Luis G.
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    “Wrote options against SBUX @ $67.50 and AAPL @ $170, as both positions have grown substantially since I last touched them. Will be happy to keep the shares if the price drops below that in the next few months. Will be happy to take the money if it doesn’t happen.

    That opened room in the portfolio to add CSCO, which I’ve been talking about doing for months. (I admit that I do limit the amount in Technology, and have AAPL arbitrarily classified as a Technology company, and thus this limited my opportunities to fill out the CSCO position. Task accomplished.)

    Also added a few shares of VTR. Didn’t look at the price, yield, or valuation, other than to calculate how many shares are needed to bring it up to size.

    Spent most of the last hour and a half looking at the proposed MLB rule changes, as well as some of the locations mentioned by Jeff and Zaan for vacationing. The actual trade orders probably took fifteen minutes. 🙂 Enjoy!”

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, FLO, GIS, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

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    #48877

    Ruindog
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    Sector thoughts…

    Consumer Staples has been surging, perhaps on the expectation of continued easy money conditions? I’m not loving that — price appreciation without fundamental growth does nothing for me. Only three of the stocks on my list trade at less than 19x estimated 2019 earnings: GIS, KMB, and SYY. HSY and PEP are borderline at 19.5x. Everything else is looking overvalued at this time. At $102, my estimated forward return for PG drops below 4% (and simultaneously the price appreciation would push the position size up into the next category). That would be a clear trim for me, so I may choose to write a call option at that price to cover 1/4 of the position. Or I might not. PG largely gets left alone.

    Healthcare has long been one of my favorite sectors, along with Consumer Staples. CVS has been trading sideways for a month or more, waiting for news to catch a direction. They release earnings (and presumably an updated outlook) next week. The shares could take off if it is positive, as they have been beaten down SO far. My major focus will be their cash flow, debt levels, and plans for the MinuteClinic (whatever they are calling it now) vision.ABT and SYK are priced through the roof. Good companies, growing well, but I have a hard time investing in anything at such a high P/E (and low yield). JNJ and MDT are also good companies, and are 2/3 the valuation. The pharma segment is not especially expensive, and pays good dividends, but they are also under political pressure in their pricing. That may hold growth down for a while?

    The Industrial sector is the third that I overweight. UPS, UTX, and ETN are looking like good values here (if you believe in the business outlook). UNP has shown stellar operating performance, and despite steep price appreciation it may still be fairly valued. Analysts have a hard time keeping up with a company that is growing this fast! MMM is trading at the upper end of its fair value range, in my opinion. They need to show a stronger outlook to justify further appreciation — but conversely the shares are not likely to appreciate too substantially until the outlook improves. This is my largest Industrial position (followed by UNP), but I am content to wait.

    Consumer Discretionary is showing strength similar to Consumer Staples. Hard to justify the pricing on NKE, VFC, MCD, and SBUX — but I’ve already trimmed them back to a “permanent” position and am willing to simply hold regardless of valuations. All four companies are performing well. LOW looks like a good value, if you believe in their outlook. T as well (whatever sector they are in). DIS continues to be undervalued, and in my opinion is making all the right moves. It is by far my largest CD position, some 40% of the sector holdings.

    My fifth core sector is Technology. In my opinion, this is a sector where you need to take a long term view, investing for competitive edge and market dominance rather than based on near-term outlook or yield. My favorites are AAPL (which I also believe is a bargain), MSFT (which is emerging as a dominant cloud player), CSCO, and INTC. I have GOOGL flagged to add at some point, but am in no hurry due to the lack of a dividend and the high valuation. IBM will reward investors richly if they ever get anything right…

    Un optimista es un pesimista mal informado

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    #48910

    Preikestolen
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    Facil estar de acuerdo en todo.

    Los staples los hemos podido comprar en febrero 2018… ahora solo gis khc k estan bajitos relativamente. PG y Mcd y Nike y Abt y Vfc Kmb Hsy y Dgo Ulvr Nestle tuvimos su momento de compra.

    Todo lo que se compŕo de eso es un mantener ( incluyo a Pfe Jnj etc).

    Sobre las tech… para mi son el sector mas constante creciente de dividend growth: intl ibm cisco qcomm apple… qcomm esta mas baja ahora y a un rpd del 4% y google llevo un chupito de 1k. Microsoft se me escapo hace 3 años…

    De industrials no quiero entrar en muchas. No sigo etn ni utx ni unp. Con lo metido en Mmm itw oct-dic 2018 / y Emr desde hace años/ ups y Cmi un poco… tengo bastante.

    Cvs y Cah han subido en los ultimos 3 dias perdiendo recorrido. (Igual que gis y khc se va cerrando el margen amplio y rpd amplio se va estrechando)

    En discretionary estuvieron a precio relativo LeggetPlatt y Corning… ya han subido.

    Al final se cierran poco a poco los margenes y acabarán quedando T Mo Imb Bat y Abbvie PM. (Tambien se van cerrando los yields de Enbridge Bip So D etc…)

    Que os pareve Moolson Coors (Tap), y Tapestry (tap) y Westrock (wrk)?

    "Atrévete a Vivir la Vida que has Imaginado" Henry James

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Foros Estrategia Ted SeeksQuality - Pág. 3

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