Nervioso con las subidas – Pág. 4

Foros Estrategia Nervioso con las subidas - Pág. 4

Este debate contiene 69 respuestas, tiene 29 mensajes y lo actualizó  Eddix hace 1 año.

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  • #22293

    JaviMe
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    Topics: 7
    Replies: 127

    Ahí os dejo un gráfico de rendimiento a 10-15 años según PER shiller actual

    https://ibb.co/cOht9a

    Compra miedo y Vende codicia...
    Cartera: : TEVA - LB - SESG - TRE

    #28421

    Luis G.
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    Topics: 5
    Replies: 363

    Pongo este párrafo de un hilo de Seeking Alpha.

    Me parece muy interesante y puede guiar la compras de los próximos meses.

     

    “Today on Fast Money Halftime (CNBC) I saw the best TV reporting since I have been watching it. It was full of useful information. I will summerize what I saw in my words:Guests:
    Thomas Lee-Head of Fundstrat Research and a CNBC contributor that has appeared many times on the business shows. I like his research and his explanations for where and why.Mike Wilson-Morgan Standley Chief US Equity Stategist that looks past the numbers and the pervasive analyst noise that they share as a “Group Think” describing the merits and flaws of a company, sector, or markets.According to Mike, analysts are focusing on value versus growth when that is the wrong continuum to describe what is happening now in the US markets. It is actually a battle between cyclic and defenseive positions, with cyclicals rising and defense falling out of favor. This will last for the first half of this year until interest rates reverse and people seek a more defensive posture going forward.
    Why?The drop in corporate taxes will mask weak earnings, boltering returns, that lack the financial merits to grow because of good business practices and not some tax event. As in the past with a rising interest rate environment, this will run out of steam and contract like it did previously (peak to valley-my words). It will take two quarters to become apparent the revenues didn’t rise because business is good and growing.When that happens funds and retail investors will turn to a more secure sector (staples, utilities, REIT’s, and Healthcare- the bond proxies) beaten down by the cyclic expected growth and cast aside as too sensitive for a rising interest rate environment. In my words, a buying opportunity for safety stocks over the next 6 months, some beaten down harder than others not only in REIT’s and Utilities.Mr Lee was asked about the direction of the markets and stated a net upward bias. Both saying anything could cause a 10% pullback that hasn’t happened in a long while, and returns would be better from Europe and Asia. One of the primary reasons was the lower valuations some companies have across the pond.The discussion turned to GE. Neither think that all the bad news is in the price. Mr Lee thinks there are more surprises to be announced only this time in the power generation segment of their businesses. In short Mike concurred that all the news and expectations are not in the stock price now. Both haave reservations that some companies can be spun off with GE Capital backing all of the businesses in some manner or form. This is the glue that binds them together and would make it difficult to untether most anything. They need capital and they need a way to get it, thus putting the dividend in question again.”

    Así que parece ser que hay 6 meses de oportunidades para Utilities, REITs y quizá consumer Staples.

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, FLO, GIS, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

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    #28429

    Mr.J
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    Topics: 1
    Replies: 313

    Muy buen aporte Luís.

    Ojalá sea cierto! Sería una buena oportunidad de cargar en sectores defensivos. Esperaremos a ver que sucede 🙂

    #28448

    Preikestolen
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    Topics: 34
    Replies: 1817

    Pongo este párrafo de un hilo de Seeking Alpha. Me parece muy interesante y puede guiar la compras de los próximos meses. “Today on Fast Money Halftime (CNBC) I saw the best TV reporting since I have been watching it. It was full of useful information. I will summerize what I saw in my words:Guests: Thomas Lee-Head of Fundstrat Research and a CNBC contributor that has appeared many times on the business shows. I like his research and his explanations for where and why.Mike Wilson-Morgan Standley Chief US Equity Stategist that looks past the numbers and the pervasive analyst noise that they share as a “Group Think” describing the merits and flaws of a company, sector, or markets.According to Mike, analysts are focusing on value versus growth when that is the wrong continuum to describe what is happening now in the US markets. It is actually a battle between cyclic and defenseive positions, with cyclicals rising and defense falling out of favor. This will last for the first half of this year until interest rates reverse and people seek a more defensive posture going forward. Why?The drop in corporate taxes will mask weak earnings, boltering returns, that lack the financial merits to grow because of good business practices and not some tax event. As in the past with a rising interest rate environment, this will run out of steam and contract like it did previously (peak to valley-my words). It will take two quarters to become apparent the revenues didn’t rise because business is good and growing.When that happens funds and retail investors will turn to a more secure sector (staples, utilities, REIT’s, and Healthcare- the bond proxies) beaten down by the cyclic expected growth and cast aside as too sensitive for a rising interest rate environment. In my words, a buying opportunity for safety stocks over the next 6 months, some beaten down harder than others not only in REIT’s and Utilities.Mr Lee was asked about the direction of the markets and stated a net upward bias. Both saying anything could cause a 10% pullback that hasn’t happened in a long while, and returns would be better from Europe and Asia. One of the primary reasons was the lower valuations some companies have across the pond.The discussion turned to GE. Neither think that all the bad news is in the price. Mr Lee thinks there are more surprises to be announced only this time in the power generation segment of their businesses. In short Mike concurred that all the news and expectations are not in the stock price now. Both haave reservations that some companies can be spun off with GE Capital backing all of the businesses in some manner or form. This is the glue that binds them together and would make it difficult to untether most anything. They need capital and they need a way to get it, thus putting the dividend in question again.” Así que parece ser que hay 6 meses de oportunidades para Utilities, REITs y quizá consumer Staples.

    Muy interesante Luis. es lo mismo que ha señalado Chowder hace unos días y que creo que tú o alguien ha posteado por algún post:

    “Some of you still don’t get it! You still don’t have your mind right. You still don’t know how to gauge the condition of the market. You hear what people say but you don’t LISTEN. You continue to practice rookie errors.
    You say you want income but you’re worried about share price. You think that owning quality companies means they shouldn’t drop in price when the market is up on the day or week and you are down. You obviously don’t know what the term quality means when it comes to selecting companies to own.
    Pay attention to what the market is telling you, not what the blabber heads on CNBC are telling you, each of them have an agenda and that agenda most often doesn’t coincide with your agenda.
    What are your companies doing? Not their share price, their business operations. Are they meeting or beating earnings? And if not, are they heading in the right direction? That’s what you focus on, the market will catch up when it’s ready to catch up.
    Look at the sectors that are up and those that are down. Defensive companies are being sold (called risk off) in order to load up on cyclical’s (called risk on) because the economy is expected to do better than expected now that tax reform is a reality.
    Last year I was building up positions in the cyclical and sensitive areas in most portfolios to take advantage of when a risk on environment would come into play, this year most of my focus is going to be defense. Why? Because I am now able, thanks to a correction in defensive companies, able to find more companies with double the yield of the S&P 500 which is being reported as 1.7% in a Market Watch article I read. Double the yield!
    And what happens when risk off comes back into play? Those defensive companies I am over-weighting will look a lot prettier, especially when looking at the income growth I will be locking in as opposed to what others can find after prices rise again.
    You are witnessing sector rotation, inspired by better than anticipated economic growth, thus creating the risk off environment. There is nothing wrong with O. There is nothing wrong with utilities, there is nothing wrong with consumer staples from a company fundamental stand point. Money will flow back in eventually.
    As to higher rates, they are not going to have the effect a lot of people think they will. Pay attention to the market. Anyone recall the toll booth concept with MLP’s and how they thought it would protect their companies from dropping in price? That wasn’t how it worked was it?
    Ill informed people, and very informed short term thinking people, will see prices for utilities and REIT’s drop initially. Short term people will take what profits they can get, the ill informed will continue to churn their portfolio, but prices will rebound. The condition of the market will insure it. Balance sheets have been cleaned up, non profitable assets purged, higher rates have been anticipated by these companies and defensive measures have been taken.
    A growing economy will see growing margins, a growing economy will see growing expansion, all of this will be bullish for utilities and some REIT’s. Companies like O and NNN will see high occupancy rates in a growing economy and they will be able to raise rents in a growing economy. Where the MLP’s toll roll concept didn’t work was due to a declining market due to lower oil prices, thus they started losing customers.
    Those higher interest rates that will make borrowing more expensive for utilities and REIT’s will get offset in the rates they charge users and tenants. Think for a minute, isn’t that what you would do as a landlord? And you’d get it too in a growing economy. If we were heading into a recession, everything is reversed.
    You have to understand the differences so that you can make better decisions.
    Worried about prices? Go ahead, waste your time! I will continue to focus on what I always focus on, building an income stream that is reliable, predictable and increasing. Our income from O increased this month while prices dropped. Go figure!

    "Atrévete a Vivir la Vida que has Imaginado" Henry James

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    #28450

    Fran
    Offline
    Topics: 2
    Replies: 152

    Muy buena información Luis G. y Preikestolen, iremos observando para seleccionar REITS y utilities. Yo tengo OHI, y estoy pensando si ampliar, también estoy observando KIMCO, SOUTHERN, DOMINION Y DUKE.

    Planificando la IF para 2035 ...... o antes.

    #28452

    Preikestolen
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    Topics: 34
    Replies: 1817

    Muy buena información Luis G. y Preikestolen, iremos observando para seleccionar REITS y utilities. Yo tengo OHI, y estoy pensando si ampliar, también estoy observando KIMCO, SOUTHERN, DOMINION Y DUKE.

    Hola. Si que es cierto que Dominion y Duke yo ni las habia mirado nunca, no les presté en tres años ni un minuto de atención..

    Sigo pensando que Iberdrola, Enel, incluso Fortum aunque ahora ha subido nos pueden aportar más que esas Usa que aun están a un per más alto…… Y luego tenemos National Grid, Ree, Enagas, Gas natural, SSE etc…

    A mí no me preocupa tener mucho de un sector tmás defensivo como el utilitie siempre que se compre con margen de seguridad, como me ocurrió con Enel o Eon.

    Dicho ésto, como ya llevo las señaladas, he iniciado algo en D y Duk… ojalá bajen más.

    Tambien se dice que es poco growth por eso hay que comprarlo por la revalorización que se da al volver a su media cundo está deprimida. Aunque la revalorización no sea gigantesca: +30 +50 +60%… es una revaluación que puede quedarse ahí, al volver a la media.

    Sin embargo hay empresas growth que se dice que son growth pero por ejemplo sbux la llevo y no me ha dado ni un duro de revalorización en 2 años, y Nike pues gracias en el ultimo mes… pero creo que ese valor lo mimo que puede venir mañana, se puede ir de repente si un trimestre no crece. es decir de poco me sirve que una growth me suba un 80% y al cabo de un año me vuelva abajo, a n ser que haya vendido antes… otras sí que parecen imparables como Visa, todo sea dicho.

    no se si me he explicado.

    "Atrévete a Vivir la Vida que has Imaginado" Henry James

    #28453

    Preikestolen
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    Topics: 34
    Replies: 1817
    Fijemosnos que todavia no son ninguna ganga ni por precio, ni por per, ni por dividendo. El más alto Duke 4,6%, D 4,10%.
    Re: Fair value numbers based on how I determine FV.
    NEE ….. $130
    DUK ….. $79
    D ………. $76
    SO ……. $47
    WEC …. $58
    XEL …… $41
    Clearly a premium for green energy companies and you can probably expect that premium to be in play for the foreseeable future.

    "Atrévete a Vivir la Vida que has Imaginado" Henry James

    #28457

    Waits
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    Topics: 0
    Replies: 117

    Bueno, ojo, que D tiene previsto aumentar el dividendo a un 8-10% anual. Eso National Grid o Gas Natural por ejemplo ni lo huelen.

    El resto la verdad que no las he mirado…pero, hace poco precisamente estuve leyendo este articulo que sirve a modo de resumen histórico de lo que han hecho las utilities europeas:

    https://proyecto4millones.blogspot.com/2018/01/empresas-de-servicios-publicos-en-la.html

    Solamente 3 empresas tienen un historial de incremento del dividendo anual superior a 10 años. REE, Enagas y Rubis en Francia. Lo cual me parece realmente mediocre para un sector tan previsible como este.

    Yo espero que las empresas de consumo bajen sus múltiplos con la subida de tipos y den finalmente oportunidades decentes de compra.

    #28465

    B Cartera
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    Topics: 20
    Replies: 176

    Vaya….precisamente estos ultimos meses he cargado UNIBAIL RODAMCO, ENAGAS, y la NATIONAL GRID, siendo las dos primeras de las que mas ponderan actualmente en cartera y que creo seguiré aumentando si siguen así, aunque voy a priorizar NG que creo que se está poniendo muy a tiro, a ver si dura. Tambien en el punto de mira GSK que no es de esos sectores pero parece estar poniendose interesante. De momento en USA no miro nada, creo que hasta que el cambio del  euro dolar esté a 1,3 mínimo, ni me planteo entrar, entré hace un año o más en Procter and Gamble a un precio muy por debajo del actual y aún así estoy en perdidas. Si, ya se que a largo plazo lo que importa son los dividendos, pero si la libra está barata aún y National Grid y GSK se ponen a tiro….porque no aprovechar a cargar ahora ahí?? ya habrá tiempo de comprar empresas en dolares si me decido finalmente, porque creo que una cartera 80-90% euro como la tengo ahora puede hacer que duerma más tranquilo en un futuro que si meto mucha divisa como dolar, la libra fluctua menos respecto al euro.

    National Grid y GSK a tiro, libra barata, buen dividendo. Espero que dure.

    saludos

    INDITEX, ENDESA, EBRO FOODS, FERROVIAL,IBERDROLA, REE, VISCOFAN, MAPFRE, ENAGAS, BME, BASF, LVMH, BMW, SANOFI, UNIBAIL-RODAMCO, UNILEVER, MUNICH RE, BAYER, PERNOD RICARD, PROCTER&GAMBLE, NESTLE, DIAGEO, VODAFONE, NATIONAL GRID. Azvalor PP, Bestinver Global PP, Magallanes European Equity FI, Cobas Selección FI

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    #28500

    Eddix
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    Topics: 1
    Replies: 10

    Vaya….precisamente estos ultimos meses he cargado UNIBAIL RODAMCO, ENAGAS, y la NATIONAL GRID, siendo las dos primeras de las que mas ponderan actualmente en cartera y que creo seguiré aumentando si siguen así, aunque voy a priorizar NG que creo que se está poniendo muy a tiro, a ver si dura. Tambien en el punto de mira GSK que no es de esos sectores pero parece estar poniendose interesante. De momento en USA no miro nada, creo que hasta que el cambio del euro dolar esté a 1,3 mínimo, ni me planteo entrar, entré hace un año o más en Procter and Gamble a un precio muy por debajo del actual y aún así estoy en perdidas. Si, ya se que a largo plazo lo que importa son los dividendos, pero si la libra está barata aún y National Grid y GSK se ponen a tiro….porque no aprovechar a cargar ahora ahí?? ya habrá tiempo de comprar empresas en dolares si me decido finalmente, porque creo que una cartera 80-90% euro como la tengo ahora puede hacer que duerma más tranquilo en un futuro que si meto mucha divisa como dolar, la libra fluctua menos respecto al euro. National Grid y GSK a tiro, libra barata, buen dividendo. Espero que dure. saludos

    Estoy de acuerdo con tu apreciación sobre entrar en UK ahora mismo antes que USA. También prefiero trabajar ahora UK, mi última compra WPP y si NG llega a 8 libras ampliaré por ahí.

    ENA, REE, IBE, GAS, MAP, SAN, TEF, ACS, VIS, SSE, REP, BME, IAG, TRE, UU, DGE, BMW, IBM, AD, BRK-B, NG.L,WPP, PG, GNK, KHC, T, MO, VOD, BATS, GIS, BLK

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Foros Estrategia Nervioso con las subidas - Pág. 4

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