Filososofía Chowder – Pág. 11

Foros Estrategia Filososofía Chowder - Pág. 11

Este debate contiene 278 respuestas, tiene 34 mensajes y lo actualizó  Luis G. hace 4 días, 10 horas.

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  • #35741

    Preikestolen
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    Topics: 34
    Replies: 1904

    Creo que un politico español reconoce antes sus errores que Chowder. Ha!

    Cada uno debemos sacar la enseñanza util de nuestras lecturas. En mi caso ya comenþe que no aplico lo del beat raise
    … ya ke considero va en contra del principio de Margen de Seguridad.
    Comprar abbot cisco o qcomm apple verizon cuando pasan problemas o los analistas generan dudas me gusta mucho mas como Curarse en salud.

    A mi me gusta comprar T D Pep o MM cuando caen un 25%, y no las compro cuando estan en maximos aunke hagan beat raise… y especialmente cuando sacan resultados decentes y aun asi caen.

    De cualquier opinador como Chowder y otros lo guay es sacar el aprendizaje que se ajusta a nosotros. Creo que es lo que todos debemos hacer.

    En cualquier caso, si chowder comete errores le hacen menos daño a él ke a los que imitan su modelo. Eso ocurre con todas las personas con aura de predicamento.
    Como él dice tambien, debemos adaptar a nuestro propio modo de hacer las cosas.

    Saludos.

    "Atrévete a Vivir la Vida que has Imaginado" Henry James

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    #35768

    Huanhotze
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    Replies: 58

    Al loro. Chowder ha decidido dejar de aplicar el “Bet and Raise” para adaptarse a la actual condición del mercado. En lugar de eso vuelve a aplicar algo parecido a la Chowder Rule. La diferencia es que en vez de usar el crecimiento del dividendo de los pasados 5 años usa el crecimiento del dividendo para el PRÓXIMO AÑO. Mira al futuro en vez de al pasado.

    Those of you who have been following me for a while know that I am constantly talking about the condition of the market determining the tactics I use to reach our longer term goals. The last couple of years the market conditions were very favorable to adding to positions where the company announced a beat and raise on both earnings and revenue, growth was the name of the game. That tactic is no longer as successful as it has been due to valuations rising ahead of earnings as opposed to reacting to them, and even companies doing better than expected are correcting. So, the market has suggested I adapt, and adapt I have done.

    Since our primary objective is to build an income stream that is reliable, predictable and increasing, our main focus now is on adding to companies with at least a 3% yield and announce a dividend increase of 8% or more. This brings us back to the Chowder Rule which was very effective a number of years ago and market conditions have evolved to where I think it will be effective once again.

    I didn’t realize there were so many articles written on it and there’s even a YouTube video on it, but I suppose the link below explains it fairly well.

    http://bit.ly/2IEKlon

    For the record, it’s my rule so I’m the person that can answer questions about it most. … Ha!

    Anyway, I’m not using the 5 year dividend growth record at this time, I’m willing to use dividend growth going forward as opposed to looking backward. So when PEP with it’s 3% yield came out and announced a 15% hike to the dividend, and D with its 5% yield and 10% dividend growth, we were all over it.

    You folks are going to be amazed at the dividend growth we are going to show this year and most of it not coming from new money, but using what resources we have within the portfolio.

    We’ll get back to growth eventually, but when the income man comes-a-calling, as yields and dividend increases are rising, I’m going to attack it.

    Alguien tiene un listado que cumpla la regla de Chowder haciendo el calculo con el dividendo del próximo año?

    B&H DGI

    #35821

    JordiRP
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    Replies: 269

    Se ha cubierto de gloria el tal Chowder segun veo no????

    “Trato de invertir en empresas que puedan ser manejadas por cualquier idiota, porque, tarde o temprano, algún idiota va a manejarlas”

    #35887

    keko
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    Se ha cubierto de gloria el tal Chowder segun veo no????

    Yo tampoco lo veo así. Siempre defiende que hay que adaptarse a las circunstancias del mercado. Hace cuatro o cinco años usaba la Chowder Rule para seleccionar los valores. En 2017, con todos los valores carísimos y siguiendo subiendo como la espuma se centró más en el Bet And Raise. La idea de fondo era el total return y que cuanto mejores sean los resultados de la empresa más seguro estará el dividendo (y para evitar comprar en una época en la casi todas ganan mucho dinero las que van mal, porque están baratas). También lleva tiempo hablando de “Circle the wagons”, que venía siendo meter el dinero nuevo en los valores más defensivos.

    Últimamente su idea de “Circle the wagons” incluso está implicando vender parte de las posiciones que han subido tanto que al precio actual le reportan RPDs de 2% o menos. Materializa las ganancias de capital en previsión de que van a desaparecer en breve, y aprovecha ese dinero para comprar empresas que ahora mismo dean alto RPD.

    Como ahora aunque las empresas den buenos resultados acaban bajando de precio de forma abultada asume que el mercado ya no está en el escenario del año pasado. (Esto debería hacernos pensar a todos. No vaya a ser que sigamos aplicando la misma estrategia que aplicábamos en 2017 por inercia). Ahora debe ver la cosa tan chunga que pasa del crecimiento de dividendo de los últimos cinco años y se centra únicamente en el crecimiento que sean capaz de dar A FUTURO. Es una forma de ser mucho más selectivo. Ya sabemos que rendimientos pasados no garantizan rendimientos futuros, y más cuando las condiciones de mercado parecen cambiar.

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    #35888

    Saulo
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    “Cuando los hechos cambian yo cambio de opinión,  ¿y usted qué hace?” Keynes.

    Mateo 13:12 "Porque a cualquiera que tiene, se le dará, y tendrá en abundancia; pero al que no tiene, aun lo que tiene le será quitado".

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    #35895

    JordiRP
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    Se ha cubierto de gloria el tal Chowder segun veo no????

    Yo tampoco lo veo así. Siempre defiende que hay que adaptarse a las circunstancias del mercado. Hace cuatro o cinco años usaba la Chowder Rule para seleccionar los valores. En 2017, con todos los valores carísimos y siguiendo subiendo como la espuma se centró más en el Bet And Raise. La idea de fondo era el total return y que cuanto mejores sean los resultados de la empresa más seguro estará el dividendo (y para evitar comprar en una época en la casi todas ganan mucho dinero las que van mal, porque están baratas). También lleva tiempo hablando de “Circle the wagons”, que venía siendo meter el dinero nuevo en los valores más defensivos.

    Últimamente su idea de “Circle the wagons” incluso está implicando vender parte de las posiciones que han subido tanto que al precio actual le reportan RPDs de 2% o menos. Materializa las ganancias de capital en previsión de que van a desaparecer en breve, y aprovecha ese dinero para comprar empresas que ahora mismo dean alto RPD.

    Como ahora aunque las empresas den buenos resultados acaban bajando de precio de forma abultada asume que el mercado ya no está en el escenario del año pasado. (Esto debería hacernos pensar a todos. No vaya a ser que sigamos aplicando la misma estrategia que aplicábamos en 2017 por inercia). Ahora debe ver la cosa tan chunga que pasa del crecimiento de dividendo de los últimos cinco años y se centra únicamente en el crecimiento que sean capaz de dar A FUTURO. Es una forma de ser mucho más selectivo. Ya sabemos que rendimientos pasados no garantizan rendimientos futuros, y más cuando las condiciones de mercado parecen cambiar.

    Que yo estoy a años luz de la sabiduría y experiencia de este hombre es una evidencia.

    Que todo aquel que aporta su conocimiento públicamente sin ánimo de lucro merece nuestra gratitud es una evidencia.

    Que muchos de los mensajes del tal Chowder nos pueden parecer más o menos interesantes pero que al menos nos da otro punto de vista es una evidencia.

    Que su filosofía de conseguir la IF o un buen complemento se basa en una inversión vía dividendos como las que muchos desarrollamos con todos sus matices (tipo de cartera, elección de valores, ponderación en sectores,….) es una evidencia.

    Que tiene un deje arrogante y se dirige al mundo con un punto de soberbia hasta el punto que es incapaz de admitir un error es una evidencia.

    Que argumentar que los mercados son cambiantes es de primero de carrera de los analistos financieros es una evidencia.

    Si delego mi patrimonio en un asesor financiero con el que me reuno cada x tiempo para que me explique como va lo mío y desde ese tono de suficiencia me cuenta que me compró MMM a 260 dólares y a mi consulta desde la ignorancia de por qué compramos una acción en máximos cuando hay otras en mejores precios me habla de “Beat and Raise” y no se qué de vagones porque esta empresa es un cohete que mejora resultados cada año (eso ya lo sé sólo mirando sus numeros por encima) para pedir reunión con él cuando la veo a 190 con un incremento del dividendo de un 15,74% (y un DGR a 10 años del 10,52%) del 2º Dividend King de la lista (60 años ya) y me dice que olvide todo aquel rollo que me contó que es que los mercados son cambiantes, pues cagarme en sus muelas también será una evidencia.

     

    “Trato de invertir en empresas que puedan ser manejadas por cualquier idiota, porque, tarde o temprano, algún idiota va a manejarlas”

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    #35905

    Ziur
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    Replies: 24

    Yo tengo que reconocer que su Chowder Rule me fue útil en mis inicios inversores para marcarme un punto inicial de compra. A dia de hoy sigo teniendo en cuenta la chowder rule en conjunto con otros factores.

    Su estilo de “beat and raise” no es para mi, en eso soy mas clásico y prefiero comprar con margen de seguridad al estilo de Graham, todas las empresas dan una oportunidad de compra, solo es cuestion de tener paciencia y esperar.

    Estoy de acuerdo con JordiRP sobretodo en el punto de que “los mensajes del tal Chowder nos pueden parecer más o menos interesantes pero que al menos nos da otro punto de vista es una evidencia”

    Un saludo!

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    #36488

    Luis G.
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    Sobre el objetivo que debemos tener definido.
    La verdad es que yo sólo sé cuánto me gustaría recibir de dividendos, pero no he calculado los escenarios del valor que debería tener la cartera ni tampoco he hecho planificación para ver cómo voy respecto al objetivo establecido.
    Sólo sé que cada mes cobro más que el del año anterior y que la gráfica va hacia arriba. Eso me hace feliz.

    “Here’s another thought. I am amazed at the number of people who don’t know how to set objectives. In setting objectives, there has to be a number, something to shoot for.
    It seems to me that many people just buy companies they think are undervalued, and simply hope they work out. They have no number in mind as to where they expect the portfolio value to be at any point in time. If one doesn’t know what the objective is, then how in the world do they expect to manage the position? They don’t, they hope and pray, the praying to god people, please stock god, make me whole.
    In managing my son’s portfolio, I know where I want portfolio value to be and especially dividend cash flows to be for every year going forward for the next 30 plus years. I have it written down in my spiral notebook. I know at all times if I am ahead or behind schedule.
    When total return isn’t making progress, as it is wont to do at times, then I make sure the dividend cash flow is meeting the objective.
    If he were to ask me where I expect his portfolio to be in 2025 or 2030, I can pull out my sheet and tell him. In tracking it year over year I then know whether to go for more growth or to increase yield.
    I don’t know how to manage a portfolio any other way than to be objective based, and the objective needs to be clearly defined. In knowing this, market volatility doesn’t affect me like it does some folks because I know I am ahead of schedule and have a margin of safety already built in. The portfolio was managed to do so. There may come a time, a recession for example, that may take my margin of safety away, but that’s okay, it won’t take the dividend cash flows away and those dividends will be used to buy more shares at lower prices which will eventually take the portfolio higher and back on schedule.
    Because I have clearly defined goals, and know where I stand at all times, I usually know a month or two in advance who my next man up investment will be. It’s based on my portfolio objectives, not the market’s objectives.”

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, GIS, HD, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, UNA, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

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    #36493

    Saulo
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    Sería un debate interesante,quizá en otro hilo, comparar entre nosotros los objetivos que tenemos en nuestras hojas de cálculo.

    El valor de mercado de la cartera no puede ser un objetivo como bien dice chowder.  Aunque yo uso la distancia al punto muerto y veo con agrado como cada año tengo más margen de seguridad.

    También pongo objetivos para el YOC, la fuerza de reinversión (dinero nuevo + dividendos), y por supuesto los ingresos por dividendos.

    Cada año me marco nuevos objetivos y llevo un histórico de cumplimiento.

    Los objetivos los piensas y repiensas una y otra vez durante años y te marcan el camino,  de manera que actúan como inhibidor ante compras impulsivas

    Mateo 13:12 "Porque a cualquiera que tiene, se le dará, y tendrá en abundancia; pero al que no tiene, aun lo que tiene le será quitado".

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    #36596

    Luis G.
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    Los objetivos los piensas y repiensas una y otra vez durante años y te marcan el camino, de manera que actúan como inhibidor ante compras impulsivas

    Me ha gustado esa frase.
    Mi objetivo es lograr un flujo de dinero seguro y creciente en el tiempo, por lo tanto sigo más el DGI que el valor de cartera.
    Pero reconozco que no pongo objetivos anuales o en plazo a cumplir. Me agobio.
    Quizá sea una mala gestión hacia la IF. De momento, cuando tengo dinero compro la empresa que esté mejor dentro de la lista de la compra. Si no hay dinero, espero (todavía no uso el margen disponible).
    ¿Podéis decir qué páginas usáis para planificar objetivos? (los que las usen, claro).

    Un saludo.

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, GIS, HD, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, UNA, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

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    #37070

    Luis G.
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    “You young folks are going to be bombarded with articles and comments telling you dividend investing is dead. For some people it might be, it depends on what their objectives were to begin with.
    A lot of people who invest in dividend companies are still trying to chase market performance, and from where I sit, that’s not what dividend companies are usually bought to do. I invest in companies that create income, or cash flows to be invested if one doesn’t need the income.
    So in other words, if you are a young person and are receiving $400 or $500 per month in dividends, those dividends when added to your monthly contributions are going to help you build your portfolio more quickly with regard to share count and more cash flows for investing. That’s not dead! That’s ongoing and has been for over a century.
    People will want to convince you that you are losing money when prices drop. You’re losing money if you sell and lock that loss in, but if you’re not selling, or had no desire to sell because you are looking long term, as you should be, then all you have is a draw down, not a loss, and most draw downs are temporary in nature. You are supposed to use those draw downs to add more shares, not sell and lock in a loss. When prices drop, yields rise, and you are able to purchase more shares for the same amount of money you invest every month. More shares will equal more dividends collected to help your portfolio grow even faster.
    Short term people never seem to grasp this concept. Ignore them, stick with your plan, anything happening today in the market will long be forgotten down the road and the woe is me folks will have to create something else to worry about. The only thing I worry about is generating more dividends to use to help generate even more dividends.
    Think about it!”

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, GIS, HD, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, UNA, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

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    #37355

    Luis G.
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    Este comentario me ha gustado especialmente:
    “SSD .. If that’s what you do, that’s what you do.
    I don’t look at anything other than my brokerage statements to predict my income numbers. At the end of June I will have my semi-annual numbers, I can count on those numbers going forward to double to show the annual income and try to come up with a plan to insure they are 10% higher. To me it’s reality vs theory or fantasy investing.
    I am very disciplined in my approach to earning income, I will manage my portfolio accordingly. I set an income number every year and do what I have to do to achieve it. I don’t want to count on the luck of the market.
    You got to see how detailed I was in zeroing in on your target. People need a target, most don’t have one. How does one hit a target they don’t have? Gonna rely on luck?
    What is the income target for this year and how are you going to achieve it? What is the income number for next year? There is always an objective with me, always a mission, otherwise you are floundering in a world of crap. … Ha!”
    “This brings up another point. If I were a total return investor, I can’t establish a total return objective every year because I can’t predict what the market does and what that means to me is that if I do well in total return it was luck. It’s not as though I performed, the market did.
    Even though I have more income coming in than I take out to meet living expenses, I set an income objective every year. When I know what the objective is, and I look where I stand, I then know whether I have to act or not. A good manager doesn’t allow luck to determine their fate, they establish an objective and then do whatever it takes to achieve it. I don’t understand why more people don’t understand that.
    My son is 33 and has years ahead of him yet I still set yearly goals that I strive to achieve and those goals are something I have some level of control over. I have no control over share price, I do over dividend payments.”

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, GIS, HD, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, UNA, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

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    #37356

    Luis G.
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    La cartera de Ted Fischer.
    “I’ve shared my portfolio from time to time, and it doesn’t change that much.
    Off top of my head:
    PG, KMB, UL, NSRGY, MKC, HRL
    DIS, NKE, SBUX, VFC
    JNJ, MDT, CVS, AMGN, NVS, RHHBY
    MMM, UTX, HON, ETN, GPC, UNP
    AAPL, MSFT, CSCO, IBM
    XOM
    Might be all of them… might have missed one.”

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, GIS, HD, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, UNA, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

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    #41100

    Luis G.
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    VENDE PM y en el futuro MO.

    I am making a philosophic adjustment in my son’s account. I have been saying for a while now that I was concerned about tobacco companies over the long term. I don’t think they are going away in my lifetime, but I don’t know what they will look like 30 years from now. I will be long gone by then and the young folks are depending on me to set them up right.
    My son owns both MO and PM. A full position in his portfolio is $4k at this time, MO is $4.2K and PM at $4.4K so he actually has a doubled sized position with a company that sells basically the same product. I decided to sell PM, all of it. Both are in a taxable account and MO is up 105% so the tax hit is more painful than the hit on PM who is only up 5%.
    I took the proceeds from the PM sale added to his SWK position, bringing it up close to a 3/4 sized position and I opened a new position in NEE at a 3/4 sized position.
    I will probably sell pieces of MO off over the next 3 years so as not to take too much of a tax hit and I will add to the companies already in his portfolio. He owns 50 companies and I do not want to go higher than that. So if I buy one, one has to go.
    I am not making any changes in the older folk portfolios, what I am trying to do with the young folks is that they have 20 – 30 years before retirement and then hopefully another 20 – 30 years in retirement and I just don’t have the confidence that tobacco can last that long and continue to pay what they pay unless they diverse and buy companies in other industries. If they do, I’ll come back to them, but for now, I want to build positions of size in companies I have more confidence in.

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, GIS, HD, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, UNA, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

    6 users thanked author for this post.
    #45551

    Luis G.
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    Actualización de la cartera de su hijo:

    “PORTFOLIO UPDATE:The following is the updated portfolio for my 33 year old son. A full position is $4,000. This update will not include his employer retirement fund. I am posting this to show how his positions are sized at this time. I am slowly bringing each company up to a full position.MCD …. $6837
    JNJ …… $6792
    SYY ….. $6698
    LMT ….. $6427
    ADP ….. $6015
    O ……… $5830
    KO ……. $5776
    VZ …….. $5540
    D ………. $5130
    SO ……. $4946
    MKC …. $4699
    PG ……. $4697
    UL …….. $4611
    DUK ….. $4492
    MO ……. $4469
    XOM ….. $4253
    KMB ….. $4251
    PEP ….. $4232
    ——————–
    All of the above are considered overweight positions as they are above $4,000 in value.GIS …… $3960
    CVX ….. $3851
    WELL .. $3747
    GPC …. $3604
    DG ……. $3603
    MMM … $3561
    CL …….. $3521
    BDX ….. $3348
    NEE ….. $3312
    KHC ….. $3279
    AMGN .. $3272
    ABT ….. $3260
    T ………. $3259
    VFC ….. $3248
    MA ……. $3165
    NSC ….. $3165 (no mistake, same as MA)
    CBRL … $3101
    V ………. $3024
    DE ……. $2948
    KMI …… $2947
    TGT ….. $2872
    UNP ….. $2841
    COST .. $2815
    NKE ….. $2752
    LOW …. $2743
    HD ……. $2710
    SBUX .. $2545
    HRL ….. $2433
    SWK …. $2204
    IBM …… $2203
    CAT ….. $1979
    DEO …. $1628As soon as he accumulates $1,000 we will add to one of the bottom 4 in position size in an attempt to bring each position up in size. Then we will continue to repeat the process.”

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, GIS, HD, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, UNA, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

    4 users thanked author for this post.
    #45552

    Luis G.
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    Pregunta que le hacen para crear cartera.

    “What would you recommend to a 52 year old, with a time horizon of 11-13 years, who wants to own 35 stocks (not more) and take limited risk? I’d say 70% defensive, 30% cyclical/sensitive/growth?”

    Respuesta (por supuesto 100% compañías USA):

    “In your situation of 70% defensive, I would make sure a good chunk of that is in utilities, then a good portion in consumer staples.

    In healthcare, certainly JNJ. If you are willing to accept some lower yields and expect some price growth over the next 10 years, I would certainly add BDX and SYK along with JNJ.

    Many choices in the cyclical sector.GPC .. HD .. LOW .. MCD .. NKE .. VFC .. MA .. V .. O is a must .. WELLIn the sensitive sector, I’d say ADP or PAYX is a must, as is MMM.

    After that some choices could be:CVX or XOM. Pick a defense contractor, I like LMT, but any one will do. Maybe a railroad. Then if you want technology exposure, AAPL and MSFT.

    Once you have your 35 companies selected, then work out the percentages of how much you should own of each company and in each sector.”

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, GIS, HD, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, UNA, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

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    #46586

    Luis G.
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    “Gaps often take a long time to fill due to what is known as overhead supply.

    When you see a company at a 52 week low, that means everyone who bought that company in the past year is holding a losing position. A lot of those people are now praying to the gods for price to rise so they can sell and get out even. A lot of people are waiting to sell at that point which means you need a lot of demand to offset that overhead selling, and if a company is coming off weakness, you are not going to get a lot of demand. So it takes a long time for gaps to fill, especially if they were high volume gaps.

    High volume gaps are the worst because it means Institutional Investors have given up hope, and it’s the demand created by Institutional Investors that is needed to create enough demand to offset overhead supply.

    On the other side of the token, this is why I love buying 52 week highs. At that point everyone is holding a winning position. There is no overhead supply, therefore it doesn’t take a lot of demand for prices to rise higher. This is where the most powerful price moves come from, known as a Stage 2 price move. We used to call it, blue skies above.

    It’s all about supply vs demand. … Who is in charge?”

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, GIS, HD, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, UNA, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

    2 users thanked author for this post.
    #46593

    Luis G.
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    Buen consejo acerca del comportamiento en caídas para gente joven (más de 20 años para jubilación).

    “It can be very nerve wracking when you watch the market dropping day after day. One of the hardest lessons for me to learn was that … this to shall pass.

    I had to learn to ignore watching my portfolio value and simply focus on building my share count.

    To a young person, I think my best advice would be not to buy and sell, but to buy and build. The only way you can build is to ignore what the market is doing and continue adding to your positions on a regular basis.

    Building as a young person sometimes is also frustrating because you don’t have a lot of cash to take advantage of opportunities, you have to get over this and just do the best you can with what you have.

    My son can only buy a company every two months because I require $1K in cash to invest and he contributes $500 per month. His next purchase isn’t due for a couple of more weeks and I already know I am going to add to SWK as his next man up purchase.

    I am not going to chase MSFT, GOOGL or any other high flying technology company that is down in value. I’m simply going to continue building his share count in the companies he already owns, as opposed to looking to buy new companies.

    Stay focused, don’t allow the market or others to cause you angst. Stick with your plan.”

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, GIS, HD, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, UNA, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

    2 users thanked author for this post.
    #46596

    Luis G.
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    “As the new year approaches, this is a time where a lot of people reflect on where they’ve been and look ahead to where they want to go. I make it a practice to review the previous year’s goals, before establishing new ones, to make sure I haven’t wandered off the reservation in my investing process. A review of The Single Best Investment by Lowell Miller gets reviewed annually.

    Long-term investing is for savers and builders, for people who understand (or who want to understand) that the forces of time, modest and reliable growth, and compounding are on their side. Investing isn’t some athletic event where agility and flashes of virtuosity are the secrets of success. Rather, investing really is investing, the methodical accumulation of capital through a sensible and disciplined plan which recognizes that “shares” are not little numbers that jump around on the computer screen every day. They represent a partnership interest in a real and going business. Your plan, very simply, must recognize that you will manage your investments by actually being an investor, a passive partner in a real and going business.

    A partnership in a real business! … And I want that partnership to be a long-term one. I want to build share count in each of our companies, and I only own the companies I am not only comfortable holding during corrections, but see corrections as an opportunity to buy more shares. It’s those shares that will provide your income in retirement.

    Focus on building share count. If it’s not worth building, it’s not worth owning.

    Think about it!”

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, GIS, HD, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, UNA, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

    7 users thanked author for this post.
    #46980

    Luis G.
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    Respecto a construcción de cartera cuando hay muchísimas posiciones de pequeño tamaño (punto 2).

    TED FISCHER:

    “when building out a portfolio…

    (1) Either you make a long sequence of purchases of your best ideas, regardless of valuation. This is a good approach that I endorse!

    (2) Or you buy whatever is cheap at the time and end up with a 100+ stock portfolio (because valuation is constantly changing).

    (3) Or you are constantly selling what has appreciated to buy what is cheap. I’ve worked through that process myself, and it involves a LOT of trading. But I wasn’t ready for Chowder’s approach, and I was unwilling to end up with 40+ positions on a small portfolio.”

    CHOWDER

    Acerca del punto 2.

    “This is true! I’ve been working with a number of young people in setting up their portfolio and when I see a huge number of small positions, you find that they were concerned about not paying too much, and that meant, they bought what was cheap.

    You know me, first recommendation is to identify your best ideas, sell off 10 or 20 of your worst ideas, put the cash into your best ideas and start building those positions. We’ll get to your second set of best ideas after we get your first 10 off to a good start size-wise.”

    ENG, GAS, MAP, REP, SAN, AAPL, BEP, CAH, CVS, D, DIS, ENB, GIS, HD, HRL, IBM, JNJ, KHC, LB, MMM, MO, O, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SO, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, UNA, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

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