Filososofía Chowder – Pág. 7

Foros Estrategia Filososofía Chowder - Pág. 7

Este debate contiene 162 respuestas, tiene 19 mensajes y lo actualizó  Mr Perry hace 1 día, 12 horas.

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  • #25880

    “I read some commentary yesterday on market valuations and again, those with longer term views confirm my thoughts. Equities do no have any competition from fixed income assets, the yields are way to low. The greatest threat to this bull market is the Fed. If they allow rates to rise where fixed income assets become competitive, hold on to your socks, they’ll be the only thing not dropping down. … Ha!

    Current valuations seem high to people because they are judging them on historical numbers, but this current economy, with it’s low interest rates, doesn’t come close to resembling historical numbers, this is why I say you have to pay attention the the condition of the market. Those historical numbers that so many people focus on aren’t worth much if you do not know what the market conditions were at the time. People insist on continuing to make this mistake.

    With as many companies that are coming out and beating higher earnings and revenue expectations, they are confirming that whatever valuations are today, they are not too high, not based on the current condition of the market. It could change of course, but until it does, it’s business as usual for me. Anyone I manage for that has cash is going to have that cash invested.

    My cousin asked me last night which of his 25 companies should he invest a current 401k roll over into and I asked him, which of your companies are going to perform the best over the next few years, he said I don’t know. I said, I don’t either, add to all of them. He said, simple enough. There it is!”

    ABE, BME, ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, ADM, CAH, CVS, ETP, FLO, GIS, HRL, JNJ, NGD, OHI, MO, QCOM, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, MUV2, NESN, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

    #25947

    Auténtica miel.

    1. Actually, I think Mikee asked a terrific question because what he is describing is what I am seeing others do within their portfolio when I’m asked to look at what they have.
      First of all it starts with a plan, how are you going to open a position? What size? What’s the reason for even considering it? Just as I have two basic tactics for adding to positions, selling at a discount to fair value, or a beat and raise, I also have a couple of tactics for even buying a company.
      I am a huge proponent of declaring what a full position is within a portfolio. If $10k is a full position I then break down my buys to 1/4 sized positions.
      HRL primarily trades at a premium to fair value. It takes some sort of market event or the company going through a business cycle for price to come down to a reasonable valuation. HRL came down in price, it presented a decent valuation, and I established a 1/4 sized position, in our example it would have been $2.5k. The reason I didn’t open a larger position is because there was too much uncertainty surrounding HRL and I had no idea when they would be in a position to reverse course, so I played it conservatively. HRL dropped another 10% and I allow myself to average down once, so I added another 1/4 sized position. HRL is still in the red, my son’s position is down 14% but I don’t add to positions in the red after the first average down price until I get a catalyst. So, instead of putting HRL on the back burner for now, I’ll place it in the crock pot and wait for HRL to do what it has to do.
      Mikee, held TGT for a long time in order to come out with a small profit and price drifted up without a catalyst and it made him profitable in a company he had no faith in. HRL will see its price drift as well, it will take time just as TGT did, but when it comes out with a catalyst, I’ll start building it again. If you believe in the company you hold, if you don’t believe in the company you sell and take your loss.
      Now, there are times when I’ll go in with a full position right off the bat but I do that when the catalyst exists at the time I have cash. KHC was one such example. When they broke up the old Kraft and MDLZ went one way and KHC the other, I wanted no part of MDLZ and always wanted to own Kraft if they split. So when they split I bought a full position right off the bat, before they ever announced a dividend.
      ABT was another where I went in with much larger position size on the announcement of the St Jude merger. I didn’t want to own ABBV and ABT on its own wasn’t all that attractive to me, but with the St Jude merger, I loved it and boom, I went in large.
      So those are the scenarios I use for buying and adding. Now, there is a difference in adding to a company like O with price declining as opposed to HRL declining. O isn’t facing headwinds, is meeting expectations, and is simply caught up in a market rotation process. Consumer staples are experiencing that as well, but HRL has their additional headwinds and if they didn’t, you wouldn’t have been able to buy them at a reasonable valuation. So then you have to be patient. The market doesn’t care when you entered or what you paid. Companies need time to recognize what they need to do, to make those adjustments, come up with a plan and then put it into action, and that takes more than 6 months or a year to accomplish.
      I do have my son reinvesting the dividends for now, but I won’t be adding more shares at this time, HRL is in the crock pot.
      If you want the benefit of the long-term growth (LONG TERM) that equities offer, then price volatility is the toll you pay. Put HRL in the crock pot and put a lid on it so you don’t have to look at it. That’s what I do, and I pull the lid off just prior to earnings, take a review, and then what comes out next time determines whether the lid goes back on or I take HRL out, place it on the front burner and add some more. Easy peasy when you can develop the discipline to put a lid on it. … Ha!
      Now, who’s got wings?
    2. I hope you new investors, especially you young ones are paying close attention to the angst that some are feeling about positions in the red. I have stated all along that too many people use short term tactics for long term investing and a short term tactic is to worry about price action.
      I want you to understand that these people thought one of those better investments to buy elsewhere was one of those better investments they bought, if they didn’t think that, they wouldn’t have bought it. Yet, due to the position now being in the red, they are second guessing themselves. It’s natural to do so, we all have been through that at some point in our investing careers. They aren’t actually questioning the company, they are questioning the price action and their poor timing in buying the company, but how do you do better timing if you can’t predict the future?
      Now listen up. I recently spoke about investing small and building your portfolio out in numbers, you decide how many numbers that should be. 20 companies? 30 companies? 50 companies? Your portfolio, you decide.
      Once you build your portfolio out, and you’ve purchased everything on your watch list, stop looking for new companies until you build your existing positions up.
      Now here’s the good part. It will take a good bit of time to build out and by the time you are ready to build up, you should have a very good idea of who has done well for you and who hasn’t. Those that haven’t, the position is so small it doesn’t matter, ignore it for now. But those winners? Oh babee I want to add to those winners!
      Now think about this. If I buy a new company today and price heads lower, I’m back to feeling that angst. I’m back to determining if I made another mistake or not. But, if I add to a winner, and I average up my cost basis to where it’s still well below today’s price, and the price does decline, I’m still looking at green and green doesn’t usually make me lose my mind, if you know what I’m talking about. … Ha!
      That’s why I give very little attention to the red numbers and focus on the green numbers. I am not going to throw good money after bad until it decides to become good again. I will continue to build on my winners.
      If it’s the bottom of the ninth and you need to pinch hit for the pitcher, you aren’t going to send your weakest hitter up there, you are looking for strength, your best available hitter. That’s how I look at my positions when it comes time to add on more.
      This doesn’t need to be difficult.
    3. Lots of people look at price gain/losses and allow it to affect their decision making. Some people just can’t help themselves, their self-worth as an investor is tied to the result of each company and if you folks have been paying attention to the comments I’ve been making on the psychology of investing from various reports I’ve read, you would know that you have to detach yourself from the price movement, from whether the price is currently up or down.
      I’ve said this from day 1 when I started sharing how I select companies, I base it on what they do for a living, what is the product or service that they offer, what it is they do for a living, and then decide whether I wish to partner with them in a long-term relationship.
      I remember buying CL for my son back in 2008. I didn’t see how anyone wouldn’t want exposure to their product line. CL dropped in price immediately and I thought it was never going to go green, it took a while because I invested at the worst possible time, the worst of the Great Recession hadn’t hit yet. … Ha!
      I have continued to hold on to KMI in my son’s portfolio because I want access to their assets. Oil, natural gas and other distillates can’t get to here from there without those pipelines. They are the backbone of our society. So I want access to their service. The company screwed up but the assets are still there generating copious amounts of cash flow and now that the company is getting near the end of their hurricane-like headwinds, I am now considering adding to them in 2018.
      Where we get in trouble is when we buy companies because they present a good value and all we are focused on is that price. We justify owning a company whose product or service we don’t fully understand and all we really want is those capital gains. When the company doesn’t deliver right away it undermines our confidence, we end up selling, it leaves a bad taste in our mouth and then we start second guessing every position in the red. We start to think we’re making the same mistake again.
      When I purchased SJM, HSY and HRL, I was buying their product line. They can stay in the red for the next couple of years and I don’t care, it won’t stay there forever, that product line with other company moves in the future will work out for us. If I didn’t believe that I wouldn’t have purchased them.
      The biggest mental adjustment an equity investor has to make in managing a long-term portfolio is to realize we have no control over price movement, the only thing we have control over is in how we react to it. Common sense tells me price goes up and down all the time because the market doesn’t care what I own, when I bought it, or who I am. Prices are going to go up and down, every business is going to go through a down business cycle, it’s all in the game, and if I know it’s all in the game, I’m going to ignore it, I’m going to put a lid on it and patiently wait for that catalyst to come along. It might be a future beat and raise, it may be a merger or acquisition, it can be a number of things I may not even be aware of currently. All I know is that I am not going to worry about things I can’t control and I am not going to allow the market or companies showing temporary losses to intimidate me. I’m going to manage my portfolio through good times and bad.
      The only thing I have control over is who I buy and how much. The objective I set in managing the portfolio is one I have a good bit of control over and that’s in building an income stream that is reliable, predictable and increasing. I can achieve these objectives in good times and bad, through booms and busts, through headwinds and tailwinds. I work with what I can control.
      It’s when one establishes goals they have no control over, and capital gains come under that umbrella, where those goals don’t get achieved and that is where most of our angst comes from and angst undermines our confidence and causes us to second guess ourselves.
      As long as I continue to stay focused on the income, and it continues to grow in the 8% to 12% range, those capital gains will follow along eventually and I end up by getting them through the back door, it just might take a little longer for them to walk around the house to enter from the back, but they will enter.
    4. Sobre Sector Sanidad: “There are basically two types of investments. The picks and shovels and the gold miners. Some gold miners struck it rich, most didn’t. Those who sold the picks and shovels did really well for themselves but their growth was slow and steady.
      I look at companies like CAH, MCK and ABC as miners, they are the middleman and everyone wants to get rid of the middleman if they can.
      The medical supply companies are the picks and shovel companies. Every single person who is confined to a hospital has an SYK product being used during their stay. Picks and shovels!”

    ABE, BME, ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, ADM, CAH, CVS, ETP, FLO, GIS, HRL, JNJ, NGD, OHI, MO, QCOM, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, MUV2, NESN, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

    3 users thanked author for this post.
    #26044

    Un recordatorio de los libros que recomienda leer:

    “In addition to The Single Best Investment by Lowell Miller (my investing bible) I recommend The Ultimate Dividend Playbook by Josh Peters formally of Morningstar and Dividends Still Don’t Lie by Kelley Wright of IQ Trends I believe it is.

    You’d be surprised how many people tell me that SA articles, the news and price volatility has caused them to wander off the reservation and a re-read of these books got them to focus more on what this strategy really is all about.

    Do not read these books like they are novels! If you do, you’re a knucklehead! They are study guides, one chapter at a time, stop, think about it come up with a plan of action before moving on to the next chapter. If you saw all the highlights, notes and how the binding is falling off some of them, you’d know how many times I have referred back to them. My Tom Clancy novels? Look brand new! Clancy is entertainment, investing books are study guides. Be smart! Act smart! Do it right”

    ABE, BME, ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, ADM, CAH, CVS, ETP, FLO, GIS, HRL, JNJ, NGD, OHI, MO, QCOM, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, MUV2, NESN, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

    #26452

    Esta semana ha puesto varios comentarios acerca del término “CORE”.

    Let me add a thought here on Core holdings. I am not suggesting others are wrong to pick who they pick, sometimes I think they simply pick the companies they own that are up the most and that doesn’t come close to what I was always taught as being a Core holding.
    I’m not going to go into definitions of Core, Mikee did a fine job of covering it in an article, people can ask follow up questions if they wish, you know where to find me.
    But here’s something you should consider. If you list BA as a Core holding, and dividend growth is a priority for you, understand that BA has frozen the dividend quite a few times over the past 20 years. LMT has a 50% cut in their dividend and then froze it for a couple of years before growing it again.
    So if your the type of person who gets upset at a freeze or cut, just understand that’s part of the game when you declare a company Core.
    I will build a position like LMT up in value to keep pace with Core holdings, but if I need to generate cash for some reason, I’ll trim LMT long before I trim GIS. GIS has been paying a dividend for over 100 years without ever cutting it. That’s what I call as share owner friendly.
    So again, not judging what you do, only making you aware that if you list something as Core, you have to take a different mindset to it than you do a non-core.”

    Artículo que también ayuda hecho por alguien que escribe activamente en los comentarios de Chowder:

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4073340-core-convictions-foundations-dividend-growth-investors-part-1

     

    ABE, BME, ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, ADM, CAH, CVS, ETP, FLO, GIS, HRL, JNJ, NGD, OHI, MO, QCOM, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, MUV2, NESN, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    #26454

    REE 9,4% ENG 7,3% SEP 6,2% ITX 5,5% TGT 4,8% TEVA 4,3% VIS 4,1% CAH 3,7% GE 3,2% BA 3,2% D 3,0% PG 2,7% IBM 2,6% TEF 2,6% ABBV 2,6% JNJ 2,5% MUV2 2,4% FLO 2,1% TGP 2,1% VFC 2,0% OHI 1,9% MMM 1,7% HRL 1,6% KO 1,5% GIS 1,4% QCOM 1,4% GWW 1,4% T 1,3% EPD 1,3% CVS 1,3% XOM 1,2% MMP 1,2% LOW 1,0% ARYN 1,0% APU 0,8% CMP 0,7% GSK 0,7% IMBl 0,6% AMGN 0,4% KMB 0,3% O 0,3%

    4 users thanked author for this post.
    #26461

    “If you’re a trader looking for short term capital gains, then valuation means everything. However, if you’re investing for the long-term, and you expect the company to do well going forward, then it too is going to outgrow any valuation the company has today whether you think it is too high or not.

    Think about it, most of the people here, if they are willing to admit it, will have most of their more successful investments in terms of percentage, where the positions are smaller than they wanted to really own. They allowed valuations to stop them from building up their most successful companies. They are still looking for a price range to add and are willing to avoid owning anymore of the company if they can’t get “their” price, a price that will be irrelevant if the company continues to be successful going forward. This makes no sense to me. Why wouldn’t you want to own more of the companies performing the best for you?

    And it is this concept where my “beat and raise” tactic is applied. It’s applied to companies who have been outgrowing their valuations, and the raise part of earnings is the catalyst I use to ignore the current valuation and I buy more of what’s working well.Food for thought!”

    ABE, BME, ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, ADM, CAH, CVS, ETP, FLO, GIS, HRL, JNJ, NGD, OHI, MO, QCOM, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, MUV2, NESN, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

    #26463
    “If you’re a trader looking for short term capital gains, then valuation means everything. However, if you’re investing for the long-term, and you expect the company to do well going forward, then it too is going to outgrow any valuation the company has today whether you think it is too high or not.

    Think about it, most of the people here, if they are willing to admit it, will have most of their more successful investments in terms of percentage, where the positions are smaller than they wanted to really own. They allowed valuations to stop them from building up their most successful companies. They are still looking for a price range to add and are willing to avoid owning anymore of the company if they can’t get “their” price, a price that will be irrelevant if the company continues to be successful going forward. This makes no sense to me. Why wouldn’t you want to own more of the companies performing the best for you?

    And it is this concept where my “beat and raise” tactic is applied. It’s applied to companies who have been outgrowing their valuations, and the raise part of earnings is the catalyst I use to ignore the current valuation and I buy more of what’s working well.Food for thought!”

    ¿Siguio su propio consejo en 1999?

    #26464

    Yo sinceramente no acabo de estar de acuerdo con Chowder en lo de promediar al alza tus ganadoras. Puede tener su sentido puntual, que duda cabe, pero realmente si vas a muy largo plazo lo que te permite es tener todo el tiempo del mundo para esperar a esa “perdedora” momentánea e ir comprando mas acciones ya que esta barata por las razones que sean y puedes comprar mas acciones de ella. Si realmente no hay ningún deterioro importante del negocio y tu crees en esa empresa, la teoría nos dice que es el momento de comprarla, no cuando todo vuelva a ir a las mil maravillas y cotice a PER 30…

    Claro, si todo va bien en 10 años lo mismo muchas de tus acciones cotizan mas caras de lo que las compraste, obvio. Pero también habrán crecido y sus múltiplos con ellas y probablemente estén baratas, aunque estén a precio mas caro de lo que tu la compraste.

    ¿Que sentido tiene comprar Nestlé, PG o PEP a PER 30? Ya bajarán…tarde o temprano y por las razones que sean.

    Pero bueno, esto soy yo pensando en voz alta y cuestionando un poco toda esta matraca que lleva últimamente Chowder con promediar las ganadoras.

    #26465

    Explicación de CÓMO CONSTRUIR CARTERA

    “I’m working on a portfolio now as I type, of a person around 40 who has built out the portfolio to 68 positions, and is now ready for the next step which is to build the portfolio up in value.

    Young folks, this is for you! What I am going to suggest to this person is the exact same thing I do for my 32 year old son.

    We are going to establish a full position at $4k each, now that the positions have been built out by investing small. I want that person to select about 15 companies out of the 68 they own, that they would be comfortable owning regardless of size, companies that do not get trimmed, companies that are considered what I call Core holdings based on my definition of core. Core is decided before the companies are built up in size.

    The objective first is to reinvest all dividends back into Core holdings only in this portfolio, all others dividends are to be collected in cash and used to build positions. All Core holdings are to be built up to full position first and then set on automatic pilot with dividends reinvested while the dividends collected in cash, and the monthly cash contributions are used to bring all non-core positions up to 1/2 size minimum. Most of you saw me do that with my son this year.

    Once all core are full positions with dividends reinvested, and all other positions are at least 1/2 a full position with dividends collected in cash, we will then raise the value of a full position to $6k and a 1/2 sized position to $3k and get them all weighted properly one at a time.

    As the portfolio grows, the value of a full position rises, and the process is repeated over and over until the retirement objective is met.”

    ABE, BME, ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, ADM, CAH, CVS, ETP, FLO, GIS, HRL, JNJ, NGD, OHI, MO, QCOM, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, MUV2, NESN, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

    #26466

    Lo que tiene sentido es promediar al alza pero con valoraciones razonables. Si por una casualidad de la vida acertamos a comprar un empreson que cada año gana mas lo normal es que cada año cotice mas alto y con el paso de los años ya nunca sera posible volver a comprarla al precio inicial lo cual no quiere decir que no podamos seguir comprando mas y mas acciones siempre que su valoracion sea razonable.

    Lo que no tiene sentido es promediar al alza sin tener en cuenta las valoraciones porque podemos terminar promediando en Coca Cola en 1997 cuando cotizaba al mismo precio que hoy dia 20 años despues.

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    #26467

    Hola Vash, muchas gracias por comentar.

    El promediar al alza, entiendo que es el primer punto que dices. Espera a resultados de empresas y en función de ellos elige las compras.

    El segundo punto, creo que también lo aplica a sus core. Compra independientemente del precio (y quizá resultados). Según creo por lo que voy leyendo, una vez elegida una empresa “core” va a todas con ella.

    “I don’t play the 100% correct game, if I’m successful on just 80% of my positions I’ll exceed our goals.
    Too many people focus on what’s not working and I look at what is working and add some more. I am not going to eliminate mistakes no matter how hard I try, I’m not that smart.”

    Un saludo.

    ABE, BME, ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, ADM, CAH, CVS, ETP, FLO, GIS, HRL, JNJ, NGD, OHI, MO, QCOM, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, MUV2, NESN, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

    #26468
    Lo que tiene sentido es promediar al alza pero con valoraciones razonables. Si por una casualidad de la vida acertamos a comprar un empreson que cada año gana mas lo normal es que cada año cotice mas alto y con el paso de los años ya nunca sera posible volver a comprarla al precio inicial.

    Intento contestar a las cuestiones con lo que le he ido leyendo este tiempo.

    En primer lugar chowder escoge las empresas por lo que se dedican. Le interesa captar los dólares de los consumidores sin importar el ciclo. El caso es que una de estas empresas que elige va a estar más arriba en 5 y 10 años (eso cree, claro).

    Después, se basa en los precios obtenidos de varias firmas de analistas para saber si está cara o no. Si es una empresa de calidad y no está más de un 10% sobrevalorada (normalmente), añade también cuando superan expectativas, porque eso indica que en el futuro va a valer más.

    Su estrategia depende también del momento de mercado, no es lo mismo uno alcista como ahora que uno bajista.

    En 1999 no usaba esta estrategia, le costó pasar dos crisis para pergeñarla al ver cómo respondían algunas empresas que llevaba. El caso es que no lleva apenas tecnológicas salvo en cefs, con lo que le hubiera afectado menos que a la mayoría. Y seguiría recibiendo los dividendos crecientes, que es de lo que se trata.

    4 users thanked author for this post.
    #26469

    Tenéis que tener en cuenta también que la estrategia funciona porque a la gente le cuesta ver el rojo en sus carteras.

    La otra parte de la estrategia es entrar en buenas empresas que están con dudas e iniciar hasta media posición. Luego ir construyendo en la recuperación, con lo que vas añadiendo cuando superan expectativas y tu posición estará en verde a partir de ahí.

    El suele hablar para jóvenes inversores. Que no hagan caso del ruido y elijan bien las empresas. Para eso él muestra las suyas y las acciones que sigue en tiempo real.

    5 users thanked author for this post.
    #26709

    “You can talk about price all you want, it’s just not a focus for me and many, many people who read these comments.
    I continue to review portfolios where price was a concern and those folks are now even more concerned because the income is falling short, and I have reviewed quite a few portfolios over the past few weeks from people who read these comments.
    Every single one of them was falling short on income and most of them near or at retirement age. It’s why I have been pounding the table for people to build the income first and then when they have more than they need they can buy all the GOOGL, AMZN and other stuff they want. They can worry about price and what they pay going forward after their safety needs are met first.
    Many of the people we have read comments from, Buy & Hold, Crosetti, AS and others changed their approach after their income needs were met. They didn’t accumulate what they have by managing their portfolios the way they do now. They may have had various degrees of doing so, but now that their needs are met they can do other things.
    I just want to balance what folks who discuss price and discount valuations have to say by keeping folks focused on the primary objective which is income.
    Many folks here don’t have positions as large as they want because they were too focused on pricing and not focused enough on how the company was doing. We celebrate these 10% dividend growth announcements but in my case they are coming off full and overweight positions where others only have 1/2 sized positions or there abouts. We hear people all the time saying, I wish I owned more. It’s their view on pricing, and lack of a forward looking vision that kept their positions smaller than they’d like them to be.
    Price may be more important to some, so important that they would rather lose out on owning something if they can’t get their price. I figure the market could care less what my price is so I focus on building companies that are profitable for me and don’t worry about pricing. If the market corrects, I promise you, I will be adding more, but I’m going to add more even if the market continues to rise. To me, it’s all about how much income my assets are generating for me to live comfortably in retirement where I don’t have to worry about inflation or market conditions.
    Others are free to discuss price, I’m staying focused on adding shares and building income/cash flows.”

    ABE, BME, ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, ADM, CAH, CVS, ETP, FLO, GIS, HRL, JNJ, NGD, OHI, MO, QCOM, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, MUV2, NESN, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

    #26710

    For young investors only investing $1k to $2k at a time, it doesn’t matter. We’ve already covered that in previous comment streams. Anything they buy today, the price they pay, will be irrelevant 20, 30, 40 years from now.
    I am not going to do any value appraisals because I saw too many young people passing on good companies because the group convinced them the valuations were too high and for them it doesn’t make a difference when investing small.
    Take a look at MMM. … Back on 7-28-17 fair value for MMM was $169. It never came down to $169 and today sits at $234. It was selling at $197 at the time.
    If one was investing their $1k at the time they could have purchased 5 shares @ $197. If they got their $169 FV price, which never did hit, they still only got 5 shares.
    I don’t want young investors doing all or nothing, my price or no price. I want them to open small positions in good companies and build their portfolio out in numbers. Once they reach their number, whether it be 20 companies, 30 companies, 40 companies or more, by then you know who is profitable and who isn’t and you start building those who are profitable.
    Again I will reiterate, if a company you select today is going to be successful going forward, then it’s going to outgrow any valuation you attach to it today. Valuation becomes irrelevant.”

    Y ahora viene la parte en la que no estoy de acuerdo.

    “You know what happens when you teach new investors about valuations? They load up on CVS, GILD, TGT, GE and a slew of other under-performers because that’s where the value is when you are in a momentum type market. I don’t want them loading up on under-performers, I want them owning companies that are doing well, and to do that you have to ignore the valuations.
    It all has to do with the condition of the market and the market is not, and has not rewarded value for the last couple of years. We need a market correction for value to come back into play and then we’ll adjust the metrics once again.”

    Al parecer, considera que tal y como está el mercado, comprar empresas con problemas o disminución de la cotización puede ser contraproducente.

    Para mí, si una empresa te gusta, mejor que ahora esté a precios bajos. Más podré cargar. La apuesta es a largo plazo y ya he visto el rojo (muy rojo) en mi cartera. No me asusta que la empresa se estanque mientras siga con dividendos crecientes. El día que cumpla expectativas o las supere (véase GWW), subirá como la espuma.

    Y para enfatizar mi opinión, aquí va otro comentario suyo:

    “I’m not sure it matters. It holds too many people back, looking too much for perfection as opposed to simply buying good companies.
    A year and a half ago people were selling DE, worried about dividend growth, worried about revenue growth, worried about valuations, worried, worried, worried, and I was questioned on my purchase of DE.
    People wanted to wait for the metrics to confirm it was time to buy and I kept saying I just want to own good companies. I’ve also stated that if people wait and wait and wait for things to line up, they won’t pay for the company when it does what it is they wanted it to do before buying.
    DE is up 71% in a year and a half, and for a young person building a portfolio, that’s a nice confidence boost.
    The numbers finally support the valuations for DE as they beat on earnings and revenue but it has already moved 71% and I doubt it grows another 71% over the next year and a half.
    The valuations for me are basically worthless. First of all, I’m not selling shares so it doesn’t matter what I pay. My focus is income and what does matter is how many shares I add. I’m not going to worry about, I could have added a few more shares by waiting, I’m going to buy more anyway if prices drop, I’m going to buy more if prices rise, no need to worry about value. Good companies will outgrow any valuation you look at today, and if it’s going to outgrow it, why should it matter?
    Worrying about valuations kept me from adding more shares of outperforming companies, not aid me.”

     

    ABE, BME, ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, ADM, CAH, CVS, ETP, FLO, GIS, HRL, JNJ, NGD, OHI, MO, QCOM, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, MUV2, NESN, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

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    #26711

    “I constantly hear from folks afraid of putting money to work under current market conditions. I hear from folks who are afraid their portfolios won’t grow as much as they prefer. I hear from folks who fear their capital gains being taken away. I hear from folks who fear dividend cuts. And most important, I hear from people who are afraid they are paying too much for quality companies.
    In teaching my kids how to overcome fear, I told them that the brain is not always subject to logic, but the brain is always subject to action. I asked my daughter what her greatest fear was and she said jumping out of a plane. I had her jump out of a plane and now she feels like she can do anything. Action is what overcomes fear, but it’s got to be good action.
    People seem to think that if they buy a company at a discount that if a correction comes it won’t drop as much as the market. It seems logical that it may soothe some nerves but what difference does it really make whether something is down 35% or 50%? The only difference I see is that if it’s down, I don’t lock those losses in, and that if it’s down, it’s capable of rebounding. That’s all that matters to me, that it rebounds.
    My KO position wasn’t down nearly as much as my O position during the Great Recession, but I had no intentions of selling either one, so what difference does it make that O was down so much more? It actually came back much more stronger than KO did.
    My portfolio value, what some of you refer to as principal, dropped 35% from peak to valley while the S&P 500 dropped 57% in value. So? What difference did it make? I didn’t sell my index fund in the 401k and I didn’t sell my assets in the brokerage accounts and I actually added to my assets in both accounts and my income kept rising during the Great Recession. … Now think about that concept for a minute. … Portfolio value (principal) was dropping day after day, week after week, and my income kept rising. I stayed 100% invested in equities through the worst recession since pre WWII. … How bout that!
    How did I manage my fears? I put together a plan of action that had me owning high quality (BBB+ or better) companies with most of them being in the defensive sector. I prefer a portfolio that is at least 50% defensive and that includes consumer staples, utilities and healthcare.
    As I applied my strategy, the thing that gave me hope and strength was watching the income grow each quarter. When I clicked on to my brokerage account I was going straight to transactions to check on those dividends and all I saw was green, green, green. And here’s what I learned.
    If you have a $1 million portfolio generating income currently, and the market has a correction where your portfolio value drops to $600k, that $600k portfolio is still generating the income of a $1 million portfolio as long as you don’t sell your assets, and to prevent you from the temptation of selling your assets, own high quality companies you are confident will survive, thrive, and head back up once the correction is over.
    When the market corrects, it only adjusts your share prices, it doesn’t take away ownership shares, and dividends are based on ownership shares, so your income continues to flow, and it’s that income that is providing for my retirement. I never bought into the concept of selling 4% of my equities each year to generate cash. Needing to sell assets in a declining market was the one thing I wanted to avoid.
    Think smart, act smart. Manage your fears by putting together a plan of action centered around safety and simply follow through.”

    ABE, BME, ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, ADM, CAH, CVS, ETP, FLO, GIS, HRL, JNJ, NGD, OHI, MO, QCOM, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, NG, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, MUV2, NESN, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

    #26712

    Pues yo como tu, para nada de acuerdo en toda esa segunda parte. ¿Pero vamos a largo plazo o quiere controlar el market timing y piensa solo en que va a marcar la cotización en los próximos 4 meses? Porque en esa segunda parte, como idea principal tenemos que hay que comprar las compañías que van muy bien y que baten earnings en cada nuevo anuncio de resultados, porque así para alguien que comienza, va a ver su cartera en verde. ¿Mentalidad cortoplacista no?

    Si confías en el negocio de CVS, TGT, GE o GIS, ahora puede ser un buen momento de comprarlas, no cuando estaban a 110$, 80$, 30$ o 70$. ¿Que las ves en rojo? ¿Y? Si vas a largo plazo y no las vas a vender, ¿que mas da lo que marquen durante el próximo año? Y ya lo de que las valoraciones no valen de nada, ya para mear y no echar gota. Claro, la locura humana hace algunas veces que las valoraciones no se ajusten y no sirvan, ¿pero como no van a valer de nada?

    #26713
    Pues yo como tu, para nada de acuerdo en toda esa segunda parte. ¿Pero vamos a largo plazo o quiere controlar el market timing y piensa solo en que va a marcar la cotización en los próximos 4 meses? Porque en esa segunda parte, como idea principal tenemos que hay que comprar las compañías que van muy bien y que baten earnings en cada nuevo anuncio de resultados, porque así para alguien que comienza, va a ver su cartera en verde. ¿Mentalidad cortoplacista no?

    Si confías en el negocio de CVS, TGT, GE o GIS, ahora puede ser un buen momento de comprarlas, no cuando estaban a 110$, 80$, 30$ o 70$. ¿Que las ves en rojo? ¿Y? Si vas a largo plazo y no las vas a vender, ¿que mas da lo que marquen durante el próximo año? Y ya lo de que las valoraciones no valen de nada, ya para mear y no echar gota. Claro, la locura humana hace algunas veces que las valoraciones no se ajusten y no sirvan, ¿pero como no van a valer de nada?

    No es market timing. Se trata de que si solo añades a empresas perdedoras, no estás comprando las que lo están haciendo bien. Que por eso están caras y por eso suben casi siempre, porque son buenas empresas, bien gestionadas y con un buen negocio. Todas estas que nombra, no es que esté en contra de comprarlas cuando pasan dificultades, de hecho ha recomendado comprarlas (y GIS es una core para él y no para de recomendar comprar), pero no puedes llenar tu cartera de ellas porque te perderás las otras. Es decir, hay que comprarlas pero solo la mitad de la posición y tener un número reducido de turnaround stories (como las llama él). No solo porque evitas las que lo están haciendo bien, sino porque también hay más riesgo de recorte de dividendo.

    Además, si os fijáis, dice para la gente que empieza. ¿Creéis que están preparados para ver una posición muy en rojo durante un tiempo prolongado? ¿Y de verla -50% o más si llega un crash? Pues eso.

    Lo que dice siempre no es que las valoraciones no valgan para nada. No valen para nada a la hora de lo que recibes porque no vas a venderlas. Y si no vas a vender qué más te da lo que suba en precio, solo te impedirá comprar más cromos a menos precio. Cuando las compras sí que hay que tener en cuenta los precios objetivos.

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    #26724

    Gracias @investing.saints y @Luis G. por ir recopilando los comentarios de Chowder, muy instructivo.

    Alguno de vosotros conoce el listado de empresas que compone su cartera? Y de ellas cuales considera core?

    REE 9,4% ENG 7,3% SEP 6,2% ITX 5,5% TGT 4,8% TEVA 4,3% VIS 4,1% CAH 3,7% GE 3,2% BA 3,2% D 3,0% PG 2,7% IBM 2,6% TEF 2,6% ABBV 2,6% JNJ 2,5% MUV2 2,4% FLO 2,1% TGP 2,1% VFC 2,0% OHI 1,9% MMM 1,7% HRL 1,6% KO 1,5% GIS 1,4% QCOM 1,4% GWW 1,4% T 1,3% EPD 1,3% CVS 1,3% XOM 1,2% MMP 1,2% LOW 1,0% ARYN 1,0% APU 0,8% CMP 0,7% GSK 0,7% IMBl 0,6% AMGN 0,4% KMB 0,3% O 0,3%

    #26735

    Cuando esté delante del pc amplío porque la cartera que voy a poner es para quien se acerca a la jubilación, pero mientras pongo uno de los últimos comentarios en el que habla de core:

    I wish I had never mentioned the word core, so in describing my holdings, nothing has a label, it is what it is.

    Now as to the “circle the wagons” approach, when I was approaching the distribution phase I sold nearly all positions that could have been considered non-core if I was still labeling them as such. I’m not going to discuss core and non-core anymore because I’m worn out from answering the many, many questions I get and I like Cole’s response. It’s just a frame of mind.

    For you older folks in retirement that would like to see what a “circle the wagons” portfolio looks like, keep in mind the goal is a high percentage of defensive companies, and the safety of the dividend. The circle of the wagons was a defensive tactic against the charging Indians back in the wagon train days.

    There is no focus on dividend growth, we’ll take what we get. Here is an example of one the “circle the wagons” accounts.

    CVX .. D .. DUK .. GIS .. GPC .. JNJ .. KHC .. KMB .. KO .. MCD .. MO .. O .. PG .. PM .. SO .. T .. UTG .. VZ

    I try to equally weight them as best as I can and whenever a purchase is made I use the “next man up” concept where the least weighted position by market value gets added to.

    Based on current weightings, this portfolio has a yield of 3.85%.

    This portfolio is so easy to manage the average 7th grade student could do it. I don’t get into a lot of the market crap some of you allow to enter your thought process. We don’t even monitor earnings reports for this account. We don’t try to determine who will perform better than someone else. We simply add to each position when it’s their turn and we do it regardless of what is going on in the market.

    Como comentario final, casi todas estas empresas las lleva el como core (tengo dudas con MCD, DUK y UTG). Creo que MO dejó de ser core hace poco.

    En realidad no añade independientemente de lo que hace el mercado, ya que va balanceando en cierta medida al estilo de una estrategia con fondos indexados.

    Sería curioso ver el resultado de esta estrategia a lo largo de varios años en comparación con el sp500, aumentando cada mes una cantidad fija y cada 6 meses las que peor lo hayan hecho…

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