05/10/2017 a las 12:06 #2527605/10/2017 a las 14:51 #25287
Esta es mi frase favorita de Chowder…
“So again, when investing small (keep this in mind) and having a long time frame to work with, no need for dry powder. Compounding is more powerful than anything dry powder can accomplish“
Un optimista es un pesimista mal informado
1 user thanked author for this post.08/10/2017 a las 08:08 #25356
Me ha gustado mucho este párrafo:
“We aren’t the hero’s we think we are when prices head higher, and we aren’t the failures we think we are when prices head lower. We have no control over price. So getting over myself as to thinking I was a great stock picker was the first thing I had to do to get my mind right.Bill Belichick says, “Do Your Job.” … My job is to buy good companies that share company profits with us and build them up over time. That’s my job! If I do my asset allocations properly, and we’ll get into that, and I stay focused on buying quality and ignoring the herd who think everything they buy is going up, then the market will reward us in time. All we have to do is build out and up and stay focused on the income.Many people have listed their mistakes for others to learn from, and if young folks pay attention to what I’m trying to convey, those mistakes won’t be made. Most mistakes manifest around people worrying about price fluctuations. Fuh-gedda-bout-it. Buy quality, build slow, add to winners, be patient with losers before tossing more money after them, build out and then up, and stop worrying about trimming shares. If you’re going to build, BUILD!”
En negrita, porque me recuerda especialmente una frase que puso Preikestolen hace un año en comentarios del blog: Nuestro trabajo es crear una cartera de empresas de calidad y que nos den dividendos. Ése es nuestro trabajo.(Cito ya que no guardé el texto ).
ABE, BME, ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, TEL, ADM, CAH, ETP, FLO, GIS, JNJ, NGD, OHI, MO, QCOM, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, MUV2, NESN, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.08/10/2017 a las 08:17 #25357
Sobre cómo sigue la construcción de la cartera de su hijo y los próximos movimientos:
“There is always an objective, always a mission, and it changes from year to year. I was done with building out my son’s portfolio and this year the focus was on building up.
The objective, the mission for 2017 was to bring all 1/4 sized positions up to 1/2 size. That mission has finally been accomplished.I had stated earlier this year that 2018 was going to be the year of the Core, where I build all of his Core holdings to full position. I want these companies, companies I have higher conviction with, to be twice as large as other companies, at a minimum. Therefore I will be ignoring valuations and when it comes time to add, I’ll add one buy at a time. The next purchase is due to be made the first of next month.
At the present time, these are his Core holdings and their position status.
Overweight positions:JNJ .. PM .. D .. GIS .. KO .. KHC .. ADP
The following companies are Full positions:O .. VZ .. PEP .. SO .. CL .. PG .. KMB
The objective has already been achieved with those companies.
Here are the companies that need work.3/4 sized positions:MMM .. VFC .. T
1/2 sized positions:XOM
I will build those up to full positions before I look at any other companies in his portfolio unless some compelling situation pops up.I have a very sophisticated and complex strategy for adding to these companies above. I am buying the highest yield first. … Ha!So T is the next purchase and then I’ll move on to XOM.Simplicity at its best.”
ABE, BME, ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, TEL, ADM, CAH, ETP, FLO, GIS, JNJ, NGD, OHI, MO, QCOM, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, MUV2, NESN, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.08/10/2017 a las 08:44 #25358
Para hacernos una idea de lo que considera 1 posición o 1/2 en función de la edad u objetivos alcanzados.
“With younger folks a full position might be $4k and for older folks $40k. If a young person sees their position grow to $12k it’s a triple sized position but still small in relation to where it will end up at some point years from now. Do you trim at $315 only to buy more at $615 years from now? I don’t think so. A young person just needs to stop adding and build their other positions to catch up to LMT and up to where at some point a $12k position is actually a 1/2 sized position instead of being overweight.
As portfolio values rise, the amount that represents a full position rises. At one point $2k was a full position for my son and after everything was built to those levels, we raised it to $3k and now sits at $4k. In 2018 we are raising the full position status to $6k and now LMT isn’t as overweight as it once was.
We continue to build up where older folks may need to protect what they already have.Older folks who don’t have the benefit of time may need to trim back and take profits. I get that. I’ve done that. I just don’t want to see young folks trimming shares they will only have to repurchase later and probably at much higher prices.”
ABE, BME, ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, TEL, ADM, CAH, ETP, FLO, GIS, JNJ, NGD, OHI, MO, QCOM, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, MUV2, NESN, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.08/10/2017 a las 09:29 #25359
COMO CONSTRUIR UNA CARTERA:
“Young people, here is how I manage my son’s portfolio and the portfolio of other young folks that have asked for help. I try to come up with a balance between growth and income. The older folks are more income oriented in how I set up their portfolios.
I break the portfolios down into 3 sectors, using the Morningstar model. The sectors are defined as Defensive, Sensitive and Cyclical. I want 50% of the portfolio in the Defensive sector and 25% each in Sensitive and Cyclical. The model calls for 50-25-25.Defensive positions include consumer staples, utilities and healthcare.Sensitive (to the economy) positions include industrial, energy and technology.Cyclical positions include consumer discretionary, financial’s and REIT’s.
Most of my son’s Core holdings are Defensive. The goal is to have all Core and Defensive holdings at a full position or more, other positions just a 1/2 sized position. These 1/2 sized positions have to grow into full positions hence the term growth. … Ha!When investing small amounts of money as you build your positions, you don’t know where price performance is going to come from. It was unexpected that CAT and DE would perform as well as they have the past year and a half, but then who expected DIS or SCG to show negative returns over the same time frame. So I don’t try to guess, I only try to insure that all positions are properly sized so that when that surprising price explosion that CAT and DE have provided, it helps impact performance and makes up for those who haven’t performed as well.I will place V or MA in a young folks portfolio for growth, but I recommend against it in an older folks portfolio because it lacks income.
So know your goals.Now here comes the important part, straighten up!Asset allocation is an investment strategy that aims to balance risk and reward by apportioning a portfolio’s assets according to an individual’s goals, risk tolerance and investment horizon.I try to manage an equity portfolio based on the asset allocation concept among the equities to be owned. I look at how I want a portfolio established, where I want our income replacement to come from. When I consider a risk vs reward ratio, while trying to be reasonably conservative, I look to set up the portfolio with a sector weighting of Defensive 50%, Sensitive 25% and Cyclical 25%. (More defensive for older folks!)Where I see articles and comments asking, who should I buy next, SBUX, BDX or V, what we have is people trying to predict who is going to perform better in the near future and that is not a question I ask myself in managing a portfolio. I look at my sector allocations to see who is lacking the proper weightings, and if it’s discretionary, I buy SBUX. If I can use a little more defense, I buy BDX. If I can use some financial exposure it’s V. I’m not chasing results, I’m focusing on proper sector allocations and will patiently wait for the market to come to me since I don’t know where the best returns are coming from next year or the year after.
Thus, I focus on companies and sectors being properly sized and get paid to wait via the dividend stream.If cash is available, and I can use all 3 then I’d buy all 3 but in talking about folks like my son, who can only buy one company at a time, I have to make choices.If for some reason I needed to upgrade all 3 sectors and only had the cash to make one purchase, I’d go with defense first and add to BDX as long as it was reasonably valued. If BDX had a valuation so high I was unwilling to pay it, then I would look to see who had the best forward guidance on earnings. This company, if not purchased now, might see its valuations rise due to good performance and I’d rather be on board when it does. Most people would select the best valued company and the definition of best value meaning best discount. Best discount under current market conditions means company performance is lacking. If a company is under-performing, it’s price isn’t going anywhere soon and I can come back to this later, so I do not necessarily jump on what appears to be the best value available, as price does not determine future value of a company and I’m looking forward.Always an objective, always a mission, stick with the plan.”08/10/2017 a las 09:33 #25360
La cartera de su hijo. (publicada 12 sept). Ya se puso antes, pero lo vuelvo a pegar para poder seguir bien la explicación de cómo construir cartera (según Chowder). Recordad, actualmente (para su hijo) considera posición completa 4K (y va a aumentar a 6K).
Defensive:Staples ……… 36.8%
Utilities ……… 10.8% (includes telecom)
Healthcare … 10.1%
Total … 57.7%
Cyclical:Discretionary … 11.9%
Financials …….. 2.6%
REIT’s …………. 4.9%
Total … 19.4%
Sensitive:Industrials …. 14.5%
Energy ………. 4.3%
Technology … 1.5%
Total … 20.3%
HOLDINGS …The following are considered overweight positions:
*JNJ ….. 3.7%
LMT ….. 3.7%
MCD …. 3.6%
*PM …… 3.5%
*D ……… 3.1%
MO ……. 3.1%
*GIS ….. 2.8%
SYY ….. 2.8%
*KO …… 2.7%
*KHC …. 2.7%
*ADP …. 2.6%
The following are considered in full position range:
*O ……… 2.5%
*VZ ……. 2.5%
*PEP …. 2.4%
*SO …… 2.4%
HCN ….. 2.3%
*CL ……. 2.2%
*PG …… 2.2%
CVX ….. 2.2%
*KMB … 2.1%
The following are considered in the 3/4 sized position range:
AMGN … 1.8%
UL ……… 1.6%
ABT …… 1.5%
*MMM … 1.5%
*VFC …. 1.5%
*T ……… 1.5%
The following are considered in the 1/2 sized position range:
DG ……… 1.4%
DUK ……. 1.4%
MKC …… 1.4%
NSC ……. 1.4%
MA ……… 1.3%
SBUX ….. 1.3%
V ………… 1.3%
CAT …….. 1.2%
LOW …… 1.2%
NKE ……. 1.2%
TAP ……. 1.2%
UNP …… 1.2%
*XOM …. 1.2%
CAH …… 1.1%
CBRL ….. 1.1%
COST …. 1.1%
GPC …… 1.1%
HRL ……. 1.1%
SNA ……. 1.1%
BDX ……. 1.0%
CVS ……. 1.0%
IBM …….. 1.0%
SWK …… 1.0%
TGT ……. 1.0%
DEO …… 0.9%
KMI ……. 0.9%
The following are considered in the 1/4 sized position range:
DE ….. 0.9%
HD ….. 0.8%———————-…CDK …. 0.5% (spinoff from ADP)
HYH …. 0.1% (spin off from KMB)
1 user thanked author for this post.09/10/2017 a las 09:24 #25377
3 libros recomendados:
1.- Dividends Still Don’t Lie by Kelley Wright.
2.- The Ultimate Dividend Playbook by Josh Peters (Libro del que ya nos habló Vash en su hilo de presentación).
3.- The Introduction and first 4 chapters of The Single Best Investment are a must annual review in my opinion. People have a tendency to wander off the reservation and that review should help to re-focus13/10/2017 a las 20:43 #25522
Otra perla que tanto me cuesta interiorizar: Promediar al alza los ganadores.
“Every one of us has positions that are doing well and some that aren’t. I ignore those who aren’t, they are not worth my time and effort. I focus on my winners. Who do I own that is up 50%, 80%, 100% or more? I want more of that company, not less. It’s a winner! Why would I want to limit my exposure to winners that are giving me most of my positive return? Why is it so hard for people to average up on a position already up 60%? I don’t get it! Yet, they will buy more of a loser in an effort to prevent themselves from having to admit they screwed up.
Folks, if you are going to manage an equity portfolio you gotta get your mind right. Ya gotta focus on what is important and what is important is detaching yourself from the result. You just have to manage the position, the rest is up to the market, not you. Stick with quality, invest small until you have some proven winners, and then build on to your winners. The losers can wallow around in the mud until they either improve or I sell them. It’s as easy as that!”13/10/2017 a las 23:09 #25524
O is a Core position in every portfolio I manage and a must own by any person I help in managing their portfolio. No exceptions! It is the only REIT that is considered Core in my son’s portfolio.
I have no interest in STOR but do have a position in NNN in my personal portfolio and I plan to add to it the end of this month as I think it is a nice compliment to O.I have O as one of the largest positions in many of the older folk portfolios I work with.
Any company that advertises itself as The Monthly Dividend Company is going to do everything they can to protect that dividend. They screw that up, they lose a decades old mission statement.If we are playing Cramer’s are you diversified, O is always, always one of those 5 as is JNJ. I consider D as one of those but have no objection if someone prefers another utility as long as a utility is one of the 5. I do not support any other REIT over O.O, NNN and HCN are my top choices for REIT coverage but O is da man!17/10/2017 a las 20:37 #25590
“New investors, listen up.
When I discuss Defensive positions, it has nothing to do with how much a company saw its price draw down during the last recession. Defensive has nothing to do with share price. Defensive has everything to do with whether a company can sell it’s product or service regardless of economic conditions. Those revenues are what will help generate the dividend, and it’s the dividend you want protected during recessionary times.
A company like O and MMM for example have recessionary resistant aspects to their business and that is why I am willing to consider them Core holdings even though they are not listed in the Defensive sector. O had one hell of a draw down during the last recession but that dividend was as solid as gold because their occupancy rates stood so high. Other REIT’s saw their dividend in jeopardy because they couldn’t maintain a certain level of revenues.
Defensive has to do with the dividend, not the share price. After all, this is called the “dividend growth income” strategy and part of that strategy is trying to determine where the safest dividends come from. There are many exceptions of non-defensive companies having a safe dividend, MMM and O just being a couple, but most of the dividend cuts that came in the last recession were from companies outside what I refer to as the Defensive sector. So keep that in mind newbies, and perhaps that will provide some peace of mind as we go along while most around us are scattering on ideas how to protect their portfolios. … Ha!”17/10/2017 a las 22:27 #25594
“>>> If you are working with a $3M portfolio, for example, $25k positions gets you 120 different stocks <<<
This is the part I’ve been having a difficult time to get people to relate to. I’m working with multi-million dollar portfolios that have up to 90 positions, that have $10k per month in dividends coming in and that money has to go to work somewhere.
It is where I expect my son’s portfolio to be one day as well and it’s why I constantly build share count but I’m doing so with small lots of cash, $1k at a time, and I will continue to build each of his positions up over time without being concerned about valuations. I’m not percentage hunting, I’m dollar hunting in order to create more dollars to invest.
The objective is to build positions of size and I see where some positions will reach $100k each at some point and those that do will have my Core designation. Who do you own that would allow you to feel comfortable holding that size position? That’s what I now face elsewhere and JNJ is one of those. O is one of those. D is one of those, and if I didn’t build some companies to $100K in size, instead of owning 90 companies I have to buy 290 in order to have smaller amounts invested in each and I’m not going to do that.”17/10/2017 a las 22:35 #25596
Nueva nota sobre PROMEDIAR AL ALZA. A raíz de los buenos resultados de JNJ y su subida hoy.
“New investors take note.
Some people will say they don’t have rules they simply buy good companies and don’t worry about it but then turn around and say they won’t buy unless it’s on a pull back. That’s one of the most strict rules I’ve seen, especially for those who say they don’t have rules. They do! They buy on weakness.
I have been pounding the table for a number of years now on paying attention to the “condition of the market.” I was told it appeared I had changed my strategy from what I was doing back in 2010-2012, the Chowder Rule years, but it wasn’t my strategy that changed, it was the tactics being used based on the condition of the market.
In a bull market, which we are still in, if all you are going to do is buy weakness, you are going to end up with a portfolio full of under-performing companies, and by under-performing I mean they are facing headwinds and are probably the companies showing red in most peoples portfolios. Companies like SJM, HRL, NKE, TGT, IBM, GILD and many others.
Several years ago I started showing people that I have another way to enter positions based on a bull market. I look for companies that beat on earnings, revenues and raise expectations. These are companies doing better than expected and I assume you new investors would want to own companies doing better than expected.
You know what the more experienced investors have done? They have avoided buying these companies because of their strict rules about valuations. They hadn’t made the mental adjustment that if a company is doing better than expected then whatever you think the value is, it’s going to rise because the company is performing better than expected. They have failed to build these companies up in size because they allowed the word value stop them from doing so.
We can’t even agree on how to classify a company like CVS and T. We can’t even come up with a common definition of what a Core holding is or what the definition of Defensive is, so how do we expect to come up with a definition of value?What they mean is price because they couldn’t see the value of paying up for companies doing better than expected.
Newbies, don’t get all wrapped up in this concept of value that many people can’t even define. Pick out some good companies to own and invest small. Build out to the number of holdings you wish to own, then start building them up in size.
When I look at my son’s portfolio, I look to see who is profitable, and that’s who I add to. I add to winners. If he has a loser, it stays small. I am not going to throw good money after bad. If or when the loser turns profitable, or comes out with a catalyst that indicates it might, it’s at that time when I’ll add to losing positions. Don’t get fancy, keep it simple, and don’t get wrapped up over cheap prices. You get what you pay for in the long run.When market conditions change, the tactics will change, but until then we’re still in a bull.”
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