Filososofía Chowder – Pág. 5

Foros Estrategia Filososofía Chowder - Pág. 5

Este debate contiene 98 respuestas, tiene 14 mensajes y lo actualizó  investing.saints hace 1 día, 18 horas.

Viendo 19 publicaciones - del 81 al 99 (de un total de 99)
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  • #24182
    Esos consejos se dan cuando se huele cambio de ciclo o colección próxima ¿no?.

    Hola Luis G!

    Mi interpretación es que mr. Chowder explica que ha vivido 3 recesiones y que nos tocará una, por lo cual debemos preparar la cartera con valores defensivos y recesion resistant por que seguramente nos tocará como menos una. Que cojamos el yield porque es logico, si mañana dia 7 hay una recesión seguiremos cobrando Yield dividendos que incluso crecieron en sus recesiones -empresas top-…

    Sin embargo nuestros valores “vañlue y growth” bajarían tambien un 50 por ciento y no tendriamos ni value ni groth ni yield… es lo que entiendo IMHO. ( he descubiwerto que eso significa In my humble opinion).

     

    Sobre el tiempo cercano de correccion o recesion no creo que haga planteamiento temporal, sino que como ve los pers (generales) altos interpreta va a haber menos growth…

    Sobre la recesión cercana, yo sigo siendo pesadamente pesado, me resulta dificil ver una recesion cercana o rapida nueva crisis cuando no hemos salido casi aun de la anterior casi 10 años. Yo apostaria por una long estagnation de 10 años porque sueldos bajos, menos empleo, más robots, más beneficios empresariales con menos mano de obra, disrupciones tecnologicas, intereses bajos y mucha liquidez…

    Es un deseo jeje, cuando estas invertido pides a la bolsa no que suba, sino que no baje, jeje ; y amenazas como la de catalun ya! o el coreano do sul… te tocan los huevines, con lo bien que se está trankilo, jeje…..

    IMHO

    "Atrévete a Vivir la Vida que has Imaginado" Henry James

    6 users thanked author for this post.
    #24184
    Esos consejos se dan cuando se huele cambio de ciclo o colección próxima ¿no?.

    Y sobre la corrección, pienso que la Debilidad que él habla durante Agosto y Septiembre ya se esta viendo.

    Es increible que estemos en maximos historicos y haya tantas acciones que han corregido un 20% o más: tgt exxon qcomm GE smucker hormel GeneralMills etc etc.

    Fijate que forma más sana de corregir el mercado sin hundirlo: hoy bajamos a todas las alimentacion y retailers, a los fabricantes de chips… cuando se recuperen vendemos las tecnologicas… ahora dejamos que suban las bio… dejamos que se recuperen bancos y aseguradoras…. en mi opinion las manos fuertes pueden sostener mucho vendiendo sectores y comprando otros. Hasta cuando?

    A mi lo que menos me gusta es el tema del coreano y un susto repentino con el tema de catalun ya!… el ibex ya esta casi bajando de 10.000.

    IMHO

    Salud

    "Atrévete a Vivir la Vida que has Imaginado" Henry James

    2 users thanked author for this post.
    #24185

    Hola Preikestolen,

    La verdad, una pequeña corrección para seguir cargando, no me importaría. Aunque una long estagnation permite seguir con la selección de stocks.

    Lo que pasa es que si ahora hay que ir a valores seguros, al menos que den un 3%, y CL, JNJ, MCD, HRL, SJM, por ejemplo. No llegan.

    Ayer estuve revisando el hilo de empresas UK y si bien hay RPD buenas-aceptables, el aumento del dividendo a 10-5 y 3 años en bastante roñoso.

    Se salvan BATS, CPI, BT, SSE, BP, LGEN.

    Miro esta base de datos: http://dividendlife.com/uk-dividend-champions-home/

    De momento, si puedo aunar empresas de calidad con Dividendo y aumento, seguiré.

     

    ABE, BME, ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, TEL, ADM, CAH, ETP, FLO, GIS, JNJ, NGD, OHI, MO, QCOM, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, MUV2, NESN, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    #24186
    Y sobre la corrección, pienso que la Debilidad que él habla durante Agosto y Septiembre ya se esta viendo. Es increible que estemos en maximos historicos y haya tantas acciones que han corregido un 20% o más: tgt exxon qcomm GE smucker hormel GeneralMills etc etc. Fijate que forma más sana de corregir el mercado sin hundirlo: hoy bajamos a todas las alimentacion y retailers, a los fabricantes de chips… cuando se recuperen vendemos las tecnologicas… ahora dejamos que suban las bio… dejamos que se recuperen bancos y aseguradoras…. en mi opinion las manos fuertes pueden sostener mucho vendiendo sectores y comprando otros. Hasta cuando? A mi lo que menos me gusta es el tema del coreano y un susto repentino con el tema de catalun ya!… el ibex ya esta casi bajando de 10.000. IMHO Salud

    Quizá el próximo sector que suba son las cementeras que construyan refugios y las empresas de armamento :-).

    Llevas una visión muy global del mercado. Yo todavía  sigo con la lupa y me queda mucho por leer.

    Respecto al IBEX, ya no me interesa. Pero como siga bajando más de uno se va a encontrar con PUTS ejecutadas de empresas de gran calidad tipo Telefónica (jajaja). Según cómo se desarrollen las cosas, iré rotando empresas de aquí por USA.

     

    ABE, BME, ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, TEL, ADM, CAH, ETP, FLO, GIS, JNJ, NGD, OHI, MO, QCOM, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, MUV2, NESN, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

    #24198

    Este comentario viene bien respecto al momento actual de mercado y cómo actúa.

     

    “So when LMT, NKE, RTN came on sale, those were purchased along with JNJ, KO etc. … If I had adhered to a strict rule of only purchasing from my top 20 stocks <<<
    So did I! One of my son’s first holdings was LMT back in 2009 and it has been his best performer.
    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again and again and again, that one has to consider the condition of the market. As market conditions change, so must the tactics applied to carry out our plans.
    In 2010 and 2011 we could easily shot gun pattern our approach to dividend paying companies while being very strict on valuations and yield. Most of us wouldn’t even consider a yield under 3% and quite a few reading here wouldn’t settle for anything under 4%. If we couldn’t buy near 52 week lows we wouldn’t even consider it.
    Condition of the market!
    Anyone here stepping out and buying LMT now? Anyone here adhering to the strict 3% yield rule where they no longer will hold or buy any company with less than a 3% rule or not buy unless you can get a double digit discount to fair value? The only way you’re getting those requirements met today is to buy turnaround stories, not accidental high yielder’s.
    I can’t speak for others but my tactics to shore up on mainly defense came about 2 years ago as the market headed higher and higher and valuations were no longer our daily companions, or at least not as readily available. The higher valuations go, the more I want to build the companies I know I can hold through another recession. I see people who wouldn’t own KO if you forced them to, and I look at our overweight positions in comfort as I see them barely move to the downside while other holdings drop 2% and 3% on poor market days. I look at that large dividend check come in and know it’s one of the safest ones to count on, and it provides peace of mind. I don’t underestimate to power of KO in down times.
    There is no such thing as “strict rules,” there are times when the condition of the market cause me to alter the tactics and when those conditions change, I’ll revert back the other way.
    Most of you are now simply concerned with what you have and most of you have holdings you started building 5, 6 or 7 years ago, and they are now well established. You can afford a different outlook than those who are starting today.
    Since I accepted the responsibility to help people establish a portfolio and in some cases agreed to manage it for them, what do you suggest they do in today’s market? It’s easy to sit on cash when you are already holding 20, 30 or 40 positions, but for people today, who are experiencing some fear of having missed out and want to get started, that means putting their money to work, not sitting on it, what do you suggest they buy today? Those are the challenges I face and the challenges I love. Putting money to work in what most consider an overvalued market is what I live for.
    With the dangers that come with this, when you realize it’s people’s futures at stake, and you consider the current condition of the market, you’d better adhere to a more strict code of portfolio management and to me it all starts with defense. When the market corrects enough to bring most valuations down, the tactics will change for those who are starting now.
    When the market is dropping 20 or 30 percent and the people you’ve helped are facing fear, you’d better have them in companies they are sure aren’t going bankrupt. That’s the only way to keep them from panicking.
    When I asked is KO going broke? Is JNJ going broke? Is PG going broke? And as I went down the list and they recognized every name, they said no and then I asked them, what are you worried about? The market goes up and down, always has, always will, so be sure you own companies for when the price drops you can have a level of confidence it’s just temporary. Once you get them through that, the rest is easy.”

    ABE, BME, ENG, GAS, MAP, REE, REP, SAN, TEL, ADM, CAH, ETP, FLO, GIS, JNJ, NGD, OHI, MO, QCOM, T, TGT, VFC, XOM, DGE, GSK, IMB, RDS-B, RIO, VOD, AD, BMW, ENGI, MUV2, NESN, VIE, AzValor internacional FI, Cobas internacional FI, Magallanes Microcaps Europe, True Value.

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    #24362

    Ha subido la cartera actualizada de su hijo (el proyecto 3 millones):

    Here is the portfolio update for my son as of premarket on 9/11. He is 32 years old so this could be a guideline for other young investors.
    A full position is 2.3% … a 3/4 sized position is 1.7% … a 1/2 sized position is 1.1% … a 1/4 sized position is 0.6%. An * represents a core position.
    I have his portfolio broken down into 3 sectors using the Morningstar model. I prefer a 60-20-20 ratio for him at this time.
    His current ratio is: Defensive 57.7% – Cyclical 19.4% – Sensitive – 20.3%

    Defensive:
    Staples ……… 36.8%
    Utilities ……… 10.8% (includes telecom)
    Healthcare … 10.1%
    ———————
    Total … 57.7%
    Cyclical:
    Discretionary … 11.9%
    Financials …….. 2.6%
    REIT’s …………. 4.9%
    ——————-
    Total … 19.4%
    Sensitive:
    Industrials …. 14.5%
    Energy ………. 4.3%
    Technology … 1.5%
    ———————-
    Total … 20.3%

    HOLDINGS …
    The following are considered overweight positions:
    *JNJ ….. 3.7%
    LMT ….. 3.7%
    MCD …. 3.6%
    *PM …… 3.5%
    *D ……… 3.1%
    MO ……. 3.1%
    *GIS ….. 2.8%
    SYY ….. 2.8%
    *KO …… 2.7%
    *KHC …. 2.7%
    *ADP …. 2.6%
    The following are considered in full position range:
    *O ……… 2.5%
    *VZ ……. 2.5%
    *PEP …. 2.4%
    *SO …… 2.4%
    HCN ….. 2.3%
    *CL ……. 2.2%
    *PG …… 2.2%
    CVX ….. 2.2%
    *KMB … 2.1%
    The following are considered in the 3/4 sized position range:
    AMGN … 1.8%
    UL ……… 1.6%
    ABT …… 1.5%
    *MMM … 1.5%
    *VFC …. 1.5%
    *T ……… 1.5%
    The following are considered in the 1/2 sized position range:
    DG ……… 1.4%
    DUK ……. 1.4%
    MKC …… 1.4%
    NSC ……. 1.4%
    MA ……… 1.3%
    SBUX ….. 1.3%
    V ………… 1.3%
    CAT …….. 1.2%
    LOW …… 1.2%
    NKE ……. 1.2%
    TAP ……. 1.2%
    UNP …… 1.2%
    *XOM …. 1.2%
    CAH …… 1.1%
    CBRL ….. 1.1%
    COST …. 1.1%
    GPC …… 1.1%
    HRL ……. 1.1%
    SNA ……. 1.1%
    BDX ……. 1.0%
    CVS ……. 1.0%
    IBM …….. 1.0%
    SWK …… 1.0%
    TGT ……. 1.0%
    DEO …… 0.9%
    KMI ……. 0.9%
    The following are considered in the 1/4 sized position range:
    DE ….. 0.9%
    HD ….. 0.8%

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    #24672

    Chowder deja de comentar públicamente:

    Just so you know, PM is the only way to reach me going forward, I’m not commenting publicly anymore. With as many portfolios as I manage, those folks need personal one on one answers that don’t get lost in the mainstream.
    Some of those I help were getting confused, not knowing if a comment was directed at them or not, confused by conflicting views by people with different objectives, and I think it’s in their best interest that I go private so there isn’t any misunderstanding on their part.
    I prefer to answer one on one direct going forward, with those who I manage money for having priority. However, I don’t mind helping others but it won’t be publicly, I’m more than happy to do it via PM but I may not be able to respond immediately.
    These discussions may have benefited a lot of you folks but I’m not learning anything from them, I’m not getting any intellectual stimulation from them, and they have simply taken up too much of my time, time that needed to be spent elsewhere.
    The emails I sent out this morning to various people I help, were individually designed for their specific portfolio, to their specific needs and were very detailed, almost article length, and to be honest, much more intellectually stimulating, especially the ones dealing with the psychology of the market. This is where my focus needs to be.
    It takes a lot of my time to keep up with various portfolios that I manage and I have to set priorities. Others have time to socialize and use up space, I don’t. I already spent 3 hours this morning going over portfolio adjustments while others only have themselves to monitor. I have real money at risk that belongs to other people and that’s where my time needs to be spent. I don’t have time to read and correspond with over 100 comments that I see are now here. I now understand what richjoy was talking about as to time management. … Ha!
    Beer summits? I got time for that. PM’s? I’ll do that too but I may not respond immediately. Thanks for your loyal readership.
    And I will be looking into whether I add more GIS or not to already over-sized position.

    #24674

    Oh my god!

    Se nos fue Tim McAleenan

    Divided Mantra se va a vivir a Tailandia

    Chowder se va private?

    Qué es PM???

    Propongo recopilar en postst tematicos

    sus comentarios.

    Salud

    "Atrévete a Vivir la Vida que has Imaginado" Henry James

    #24678

    Perfectamente comprensible

    Cuando se lleva muchos años en los foros al final se pierde fuelle para seguir contando lo mismo que llevas contando los ultimos 10 o 20 años. Si ademas no lo estas monetizando pues te dedicas a lo tuyo. Es ley de vida

    Por eso los nuevos escriben mucho y otros no tanto

    4 users thanked author for this post.
    #24679
    Perfectamente comprensible Cuando se lleva muchos años en los foros al final se pierde fuelle para seguir contando lo mismo que llevas contando los ultimos 10 o 20 años. Si ademas no lo estas monetizando pues te dedicas a lo tuyo. Es ley de vida Por eso los nuevos escriben mucho y otros no tanto

    Por suerte solo llevo dos años. Y lo bueno es que no voy a estar ni 3.

    Esto de viajar en autocaravana y escribir con el movil cansa mucho.

    "Atrévete a Vivir la Vida que has Imaginado" Henry James

    #24680

    Lo que le cansa es la gente que cambia constantemente de estrategia porque es insegura.

    Lo explica él mismo.

    Al recibir tantas opiniones de todo tipo, prefiere no volver locos a aquellos a los que gestiona sus carteras y concentrarse en ellos y en la estrategia que considera la única ganadora sin volverse loco: dgi.

    Perfectamente entendible, como bien dices.

    "Atrévete a Vivir la Vida que has Imaginado" Henry James

    #24681
    Qué es PM???

    Propongo recopilar en postst tematicos sus comentarios.

    Mensajes privados (Private messages).

    Yo tenía pensado hacer algo así, pero lleva un tiempo que no tengo…

    Está claro que a él no le aporta apenas y le estaba consumiendo mucho tiempo. Volverá a escribir algo, aunque sea de vez en cuando.

    #24682
    Qué es PM??? Propongo recopilar en postst tematicos sus comentarios.

    Mensajes privados (Private messages). Yo tenía pensado hacer algo así, pero lleva un tiempo que no tengo… Está claro que a él no le aporta apenas y le estaba consumiendo mucho tiempo. Volverá a escribir algo, aunque sea de vez en cuando.

    Yo también creo que esto huele más a un “hasta luego” que a un “adiós para siempre”. Si saca una newsletter de pago se hace de oro

    Un optimista es un pesimista mal informado

    #24764

    Parece que se va pero no del todo 😉

    “I haven’t left SA. I’m just not going to post publicly like I have. If people want help, they can contact me via PM. It’s the best way I know how to tune out the noise. There are those who want help, others that want attention. I don’t have time for both.
    Those who have asked for help via PM, I have taken the time to do so, and it doesn’t get lost in the mainstream.
    If I see an article on portfolio management or strategy, and I think it’s worth commenting on, I will. Don’t expect to see me in articles on specific companies as to which is the better buy or is the dividend safe, or this is why I am buying this. I prefer to get that from professionals.”

    Un optimista es un pesimista mal informado

    #24802

    Ayer ya comentó y hoy no ha podido evitar echar la bulla a alguien. Cómo lo conocemos, jajaja:

    @MaxMillie … >>> Two weeks ago, I bought 10 shares of NEE at $149. Today, it was $146. So, if I had waited today, it would be on sale for me. <<<
    Okay, you spent $1,490 to get 10 shares of NEE at $149. The same $1,490 would have purchased … wait for it … 10 shares of NEE at $146.
    What difference does it make? It’s still 10 shares. And what difference is it going to make 20 years from now that you paid $3 more for 10 shares when you were only going to get 10 shares at the lower price.
    This is what I have trying to pound home for people starting out with small positions. It doesn’t matter!
    You aren’t to go through life with 10 shares of NEE. You are going to buy more and you can bet a dollar to a nickle that prices will be higher several years from now. If we get a correction, it’s a bonus. If not, you’re in, you have a baseline to work with.
    Most of this nickle and dime-ing on valuations is crap unless we’re talking larger sums of money.

    #24883

    En los últimos dos días cuatro comentarios en un articulo de Visa (V) y otos tantos en otro de Dominon Energy (D). No está nada mal para haberse retirado 😉

    D is my favorite utility and I own quite a few. 
    D has one of the better regulator friendly markets to deal with and this is important when it comes to rate increase and mergers. One of the reasons regulators are so friendly with D is because they do try to keep down rates but more importantly, when disasters hit like Hurricane Sandy did a couple of years ago and an earthquake came through the VA area, it was D that had their customers fully restored before any other utility. They received the highest response ratings. During Sandy, some utilities went weeks before full restoration and ended up paying fines.
    D is now becoming more of a growth company, relatively speaking as far as utilities go, with their LNG facility and purchase of a pipeline system. Their acquisition of STR (which I benefited from, heh, heh) has opened up a whole new growth aspect for D and all of this combined is why the CEO is recommending to the board that D raise the dividend 10% per year for the next few years. This is a dividend growth investors dream! … Safety, reliability, a little growth, double digit dividend increases … what’s not to like? The price? Get over it, this isn’t a buy low, sell high investment, this is buy and hold, collect the money and pass on to your heirs investment. And if you aren’t going to sell to lock in capital gains, what difference does a few dollars in the price make? This is an income machine! Ask anyone besides me that has owned it 20 years or more and they will tell you the same thing. It’s a keeper!
    Every portfolio I manage has to start with D or find someone else to help you manage your money. … Ha

    Un optimista es un pesimista mal informado

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    #24901

    Gracias por la info Ruindog.

    Llevo ya un tiempo pensando entrar en D ( y en ENB, MDT, WFC, GE….). Creo que ya he posteado el link un par de veces, pero por si alguien no lo ha visto:

    http://beta.morningstar.com/videos/818255/Dominion-Energy-Is-a-Great-Dividend-Opportunity.html

     

    BME, CL, CMP, ENG, GAS, GSK, IMB, JNJ, KO, NG, PCI, QCOM, RDSB, RB, REE, SPG, UNA, UTX, VFC, VOD, ZOT

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    #24913

    Okay here’s the deal. When I started this venture it was my intent to help the young people get started with investing, but the more I ran my mouth the more other people showed up and often times the message I was trying to present would get lost in the comment stream as things get pretty much distracted when so many people are following, but I had no idea how many new people were out there following. So, I thought most people are set, they all have their own opinions it was time for me to devote my time to other aspects of the market.

    I’m not a humble man and anyone from SA who has met me in person, might even tell you I am borderline arrogant. It’s true, I am and I don’t apologize for it, but I truly was humbled by the number of PM’s I have received from young folks who never commented in the community but followed daily. It blew me away, made me feel a little guilty in fact. … Ha!

    The biggest distraction for me are these articles and comments on which is better, PG or CL, T or VZ, V or MA, etc. I hate the articles of here is why I bought so and so even more. … Ha!

    It’s nothing to pick a company … NOTHING!

    What is difficult, and what is important, is how you MANAGE the position once you own it and how you manage your portfolio. How do you manage your fears, your uncertainties, and your overconfidence and greed.

    How do you learn to work with the uncertainty of the market? How do you prepare? How do you achieve your goals when the market has turned against you? You have several options on what to buy but only have money for one, what is the process you use to make the right decision for you? How do you handle losses, how do you know when to average up or down?

    All of these things determine your level of success or failure, not the companies you pick. The Wall Street monkey can do that. It’s how you manage them once you own them and that’s what I want to share with young folks and newbies, you need that knowledge in order to invest with confidence and peace of mind.

    So, give me some time to put my thoughts together and I will on occasion write a blog or two, maybe more, where we discuss the content of that blog only. No chit chat, no stock ideas, all bidness as they like to say round these parts, and I’ll use my son’s portfolio as an example.

    The Psychology of The Market is coming to a theater near you. Embrace it! … Ha!

    #24914
    Gracias por la info Ruindog.
    Llevo ya un tiempo pensando entrar en D ( y en ENB, MDT, WFC, GE….). Creo que ya he posteado el link un par de veces, pero por si alguien no lo ha visto:

    No sé si ya puse esto por aquí, pero pongo las utilities americanas que ha elegido y por qué. Muy importante en su decisión la relación con el regulador de la compañía:

    When I looked into utilities, I didn’t focus on the yield, or a lot of the other data people screen for, I wanted to set up a utility portfolio based on geographical locations. I wanted one in the NE, one in the mid-Atlantic, one in the SE, one in the mid-central, one in the SW and one on the south and north ends of the west coast. I wanted access to all of those utility consumer dollars across the country. Then I looked for what I thought were the best of breed in each of those geographical areas.

    I wasn’t looking for the highest yields, the most growth, the best idea of beating the market, I was looking for area coverage and who best qualified. I ended up with D, SO, WEC, XEL, SRE, AVA and I couldn’t find an acceptable NE utility so I bought another SE one, NEE. … Heh, heh. I did end up buying LNT as well because WEC didn’t have enough coverage in the mid-central region.

    To me, it was all about accessing the consumer dollar in that industry across the country.

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