Filososofía Chowder – Pág. 3

Foros Estrategia Filososofía Chowder - Pág. 3

Este debate contiene 122 respuestas, tiene 15 mensajes y lo actualizó  Luis G. hace 2 semanas.

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  • #18057

    One of the most important lessons I have learned from Valuentum is the process of valuations. The man who started Valuentum used to work at Morningstar and he trained a lot of the senior analysts there. So I assume he knows a little more about valuing a company than I do, and here is the valuable lesson I learned.

    One of the most important concepts of the Valuentum methodology (and valuation in general) is the understanding that the value of a company is a range of probable valuation outcomes, not a single point estimate. Even well-seasoned stock analysts are guilty of saying that a company’s shares are worth exactly $25 or a firm’s stock is worth exactly $100. The reality is that, in the first case, the company’s shares are probably worth somewhere between $20 and $30, and in the latter case, the stock is worth somewhere between $75 and $125.

    Why? Because all of the value of a company is generated in the future (future earnings and free cash flow), and the future is inherently unpredictable (unknowable). If the future could be predicted with absolute certainly (knowable), then a stock analyst could say a company’s shares are worth precisely this, or that a firm’s stock is worth precisely that. Not because he or she would know where the stock would be trading at, but because he or she would know precisely what future free cash flows would be (and all other modeling facts-not assumptions in this case) and arrive at the exact and non-debatable value of the firm.
    But the truth of the matter is that nobody knows the future, and analysts can only estimate what a company’s future free cash flow stream will look like. Certain unexpected factors will hurt that free cash flow stream relative to forecasts, while other unexpected factors will boost performance. That’s how a downside fair value estimate and an upside fair value estimate is generated, or in the words of Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham how a “margin of safety” is generated. Only the most likely scenario represents the point fair value estimate. Any stock analyst that says a company is worth a precise figure — whether it’s $1 or $100 – -falls short of understanding one of the most important factors behind valuation.

    But why the large range in many cases?
    Well, there are many firms in our coverage universe that have a very large range of outcomes in their future free cash flow growth. And because discounting free cash flows is an integral part of calculating the fair value estimate of a company, the range of fair values will also be large.
    ———–
    When you take the time to get your head wrapped around this concept of valuations, you will begin to see why I have been saying that people are wrong to think of valuation as a price point and it’s why share prices fluctuate so widely on days when companies announce earnings. And when you understand the concept of a fair value range, you’ll realize how silly your actions were when you identified great investments and let them get away because they missed your price target by 25 cents, a dollar or even a few dollars.

    Your fear over falling prices is what prevents you from having the portfolio you’d like to have. You want a hero price not for the extra 3 or 4 shares it picks up, that’s the excuse, the justification for your fear of falling prices. You think the hero price will protect you to the downside where your position won’t drop as much. What difference does it make if it drops 20% or 30%? Unless you need to sell shares to generate cash, it doesn’t matter, and if it did matter, you shouldn’t be investing in equities.

    Some of you folks have a lot of thinking to do about the way you identify buy targets. You will never hear me say, I wish I owned more, when a company takes off and is outperforming. I will pick up shares within those fair value ranges and the more shares we own, the higher the income flow. It’s all about income.

    #18058

    Más sobre valoraciones y cuándo aportar a posiciones core (KMB lo es para él):

    When I go down my list to determine who to buy, I look at how our positions are sized and then look to the ones that I need to build up. In most of the portfolios I manage, KMB is a full position, so unless KMB comes out and beats on both earnings and revenue, I don’t add to the position. It’s already a full position and it isn’t selling at a steep discount to fair value either, or what I refer to as the lower end of the fair value range, so I let it be.

    However, I do have 1 portfolio where KMB is only a 1/2 sized position and I want it to be a full position in time, but since they just announced, and didn’t beat on both earnings and revenue, I am looking for an opportunity to add another 1/4 sized purchase to bring KMB up to a 3/4 sized position.

    When I look to various sources for valuation numbers, here’s what I see.
    Morningstar says fair value is $117.
    S&P says it’s $116.
    ValuEngine says it’s $116.
    Valuentum says it’s $116.

    So it appears that these firms all agree on the value of KMB, but as we learned from the Valuentum analysis above, fair value isn’t a price point, it’s a price range and that $112 number is in the middle of that range (shown below).

    KMB says they expect to earn between $6.20 – $6.35 per share. Where that final earnings number shows up determines whether price hits the lower or higher end of the fair value range. Hit the lower end or below and you’ll see a price drop. Hit the higher end of the earnings or exceed it, and you’ll see price gap up. This is why you see such wild price jumps to both the upside and downside on the days these companies announce.

    When I look at a fair value range, Valuentum says it is $90 to $134. That’s your fair value. It depends on where the final earnings number and amount of cash flows the company generates as to where that price goes.

    Some people want a margin of safety, a fear number and will wait until KMB can get close to $90 before buying. Following this concept is why so many people don’t own a sizable position. Most people don’t take the condition of the market into consideration when making their buying decisions. They are too busy looking at a price chart, as though that can tell you anything. All that does is show where price has been, not what a company is doing.

    So when I consider the condition of the market, if we were in a correction, I would wait until price hit the lower side of the fair value range, but since we are in a bull market, where earnings are justifying the higher earnings, I have no problem adding with price in the upper part of the fair value range.

    Therefore, we have KMB at $128.33 right now as I type and the fair value range is $90 – $134, so I will add another 1/4 sized position this coming week.

    KMB is a Core holding, it is not for sale, non-core holdings are at some point, but not Core, so I have no fear in adding to KMB in this fair value range. That $128 price tag (current price) is just a 7% premium to the average fair value price, so it’s not out of reach to say it’s reasonably valued. In a bull market you have to pay a premium for quality and a single digit premium is nothing.

    I will be buying more KMB this week.

    #18059

    Sobre su objetivo principal. Al final añadiré un comentario sobre algo que leí el otro día en Rankia y me recordó este escrito:

    Okay, I am applying another concept here that will probably have some of you shaking your heads, but I understand my mission. I know what what job is. There is no ambiguity involved.

    My job is to build an income stream that is reliable, predictable and increasing.

    If I add growth to the equation, if I add capital preservation to the equation, if I add beating benchmarks to the equation, it distracts me from my main mission because you are not going to accomplish all of those goals at the same time. Those of you who think you can are amateurs and I would challenge you to show me you could.

    And if you are so great that you can do all 3 while meeting our main objective of building an income stream that is reliable, predictable and increasing, I know I’m not good enough to accomplish all 4 goals. I know enough about goal setting to focus on the primary objective and anything above that is gravy, and I also know that when you achieve the primary objective, there may be casualties.

    In order to continue growing an income stream, I have to put up with potential unrealized losses. That’s in the game. … In order to continue growing the income stream, I may not be able to preserve capital. That’s in the game. … If I am to continue growing the income stream, I may be forced to under-perform an index or benchmark in certain time frames. That’s in the game as well.

    What is not in the game for someone in retirement is seeing a declining income stream, and once you are in retirement, the objective for us is to be free of financial stress. We don’t want to have to worry whether the bills can get paid, whether we can afford to travel or not, whether we have to worry about market conditions or not. I am going to leave all of that stress and pressure to those of you who still worry over declining prices or where price sits on a price chart. I don’t feel sorry for you, you get what you deserve. You want stress? Embrace it, I don’t care. … Ha!

    El comentario al que hacía referencia lo leí en un hilo sobre una cartera de 1000€ mensuales. Observad lo que una mala elección de empresas y pesos puede hacer a la fuente de ingresos de la que queremos depender.

    Sigue Chowder:

    >>> All Four Goals? These goals have, IMO, fairly strong positive correlations. <<<

    Over long periods, 20 years or more, yes absolutely. Most people can’t see that far in advance though. Look at how many comments where people gave up after 2 or 3 years because something didn’t go anywhere.

    Good thing they weren’t invested during the Lost Decade where price went nowhere for 10 years.

    All 4 goals can not be accomplished in all market conditions and it’s all market conditions that I am concerned with.

    Those in retirement must depend on income flow in all market conditions and that’s the one thing I have control over and am not a slave to the market.

    I know that as long as I continue to focus on high quality companies, and by high quality, I mean financially strong companies, that they will provide good long term capital gains, it’s just that those returns at times are going to decline and when they do, I can’t afford to see the income follow along. It doesn’t! I’ve been through the recessions where the equities dropped 30% or more in value yet the income stream continued to grow.

    I thought it was more important to see the income grow than to worry about a temporary drop in prices. A lot of people who thought they were going to retire in 2008 and 2009 agreed with that concept here on SA at the time. A lot of people getting ready to retire have more peace of mind heading into the next correction knowing their income needs will be met regardless.

    Investing simplified, but others insist on complicating it. They can go for it, but I am not going to buy into it. … Ha!

    #18112

    Muy buenos, me ha gustado mucho, gracias.

    No pensais que esta filosofia podria sonar parecida a comprar el VIG?

    Saludos.

    #18120
    No pensais que esta filosofia podria sonar parecida a comprar el VIG?

    No porque comprando el VIG no tienes control sobre qué y cuándo se compra, que es una de las bases de esta filosofía.

    Uno de los pilares es tener empresas core a las que añades primero y en cualquier momento siempre que no estén demasiado caras (según los rangos de precio objetivo de los analistas). Y comprando el VIG esto no se puede hacer. Y se trata de no venderlas nunca.

    #18125

    Gracias InvestingSaints.

    Este link es bueno para refrescar la estrategia, cuando haya dudas, etc…

    ¿tú viviste -invirtiendo- la que para mí ha sido un mini crack en 2015-2016 de los sectores energia petroleo banca seguros materias primas incluso tecnologicas…?

    RECORDATORIO:

    QUE HACER EN LOS CRACKS RECESSIONS que todos anticipa-n-mos:

    “That’s easy, start buying in when companies correct 30% or more. Jumping in at 10% intervals isn’t as effective. If it’s a recession, you’re going to get 30% to 40% drops in prices, and when you do start buying, focus on the best of the best in each respective industry.
    If you buy in off a 30% correction, and price continues to go lower, I only average down once. I am not going to keep throwing good money after bad until they show me their earnings and revenues are starting to grow again. So if I buy the 30% correction, I won’t add more unless it’s down another 15% give or take. After that I wait and only average up from that point.”
    May 2, 2017. 10:54 AMLink
    Where Should I Reinvest My Dividends In May? – David Van Knapp

     

    "Atrévete a Vivir la Vida que has Imaginado" Henry James

    #18134
    That’s easy, start buying in when companies correct 30% or more. Jumping in at 10% intervals isn’t as effective. If it’s a recession, you’re going to get 30% to 40% drops in prices, and when you do start buying, focus on the best of the best in each respective industry. If you buy in off a 30% correction, and price continues to go lower, I only average down once. I am not going to keep throwing good money after bad until they show me their earnings and revenues are starting to grow again. So if I buy the 30% correction, I won’t add more unless it’s down another 15% give or take. After that I wait and only average up from that point.

    Me apunto lo de empezar a comprar en correcciones cuando la acción baje un 30% o más y luego ir añadiendo si baja un 15% más.

    #18141
    No pensais que esta filosofia podria sonar parecida a comprar el VIG?

    No porque comprando el VIG no tienes control sobre qué y cuándo se compra, que es una de las bases de esta filosofía. Uno de los pilares es tener empresas core a las que añades primero y en cualquier momento siempre que no estén demasiado caras (según los rangos de precio objetivo de los analistas). Y comprando el VIG esto no se puede hacer. Y se trata de no venderlas nunca.

     

    Aun asi las Core las compra al principio a cualquier precio no? Si consideras las que componen el VIG core podrias comprarlo y luego ya solo comprar cuando no esten demasiado caras. Aunque es verdad que del VIG salen si no disminuye el dividendo.

    Me parece muy interesante la filosofia Chowder, y me estoy planteando comprar las que yo considere Core aunque no las vea muy muy en precio en lugar de TROW por ejemplo que me planteaba ahora pero no la considero core.

    Por ejemplo Jnj, Diageo y Nestle. Aunque la verdad que muy muy cerca del fair value solo esta Nestle y es la que mas cara me parece. Estan a 12.7, 6.3 y -4% lejos del fair value y 30, 34 y 16 del consider buying respectivamente..

    #18162
    Aun asi las Core las compra al principio a cualquier precio no? Si consideras las que componen el VIG core podrias comprarlo y luego ya solo comprar cuando no esten demasiado caras. Aunque es verdad que del VIG salen si no disminuye el dividendo.

    Me parece muy interesante la filosofia Chowder, y me estoy planteando comprar las que yo considere Core aunque no las vea muy muy en precio en lugar de TROW por ejemplo que me planteaba ahora pero no la considero core.

    Por ejemplo Jnj, Diageo y Nestle. Aunque la verdad que muy muy cerca del fair value solo esta Nestle y es la que mas cara me parece. Estan a 12.7, 6.3 y -4% lejos del fair value y 30, 34 y 16 del consider buying respectivamente..

    Las compra a cualquier precio dentro de un orden. Depende también de la situación de a quién le hace la cartera. De los años que le quedan hasta la jubilación, de la cantidad disponible en el momento, la que tendrá periódicamente…

    Uno de los problemas del VIG es que lleva muchas empresas que Chowder no considera como core, y añaden a las que ellos les parece, así que no es posible seguir su estrategia con él.

    Puedes seguir los comentarios de Chowder y ver lo que va comprando y por qué. Verás que está comprando unas cuantas empresas ahora para varias carteras.

    #18203

    Que buenas aportaciones!!

    Como novato en dividendos, quiero comentar que la Filosofía Chowder me atrae mucho, yo solo le pondría dos peros, uno es que está centrado en acciones USA, por lo que tenemos que buscarnos la vida con acciones Europeas, y lo segundo es que la moneda es el Dolar.
    Y claro, ¿Cómo gestionamos el cambio de moneda en este caso?

    Así que solo nos queda pues ir creando nuestra propia filosofía.

    "No quiero dinero para comprar más cosas, quiero el dinero para comprar mi tiempo". Puedes ver mi evolución aquí.

    #18223

    Yo el cambio de moneda lo gestiono sin complicaciones. Cobro, hago traspaso a IB, cambio a $ y compro acciones. Cuando viva del dividendo (si llega) iré convirtiendo lo que necesite de vuelta (o en bloques más grandes). Entiendo que a la larga el efecto moneda no tendrá demasiada influencia, y aunque lo tuviera, no es algo que pueda controlar ni anticipar en exceso.

    En cuanto a las acciones europeas, la filosofía es la misma. Elegir empresas core e ir comprando. Sí que es más complicado porque se siguen bastante menos, pero la estrategia no cambia.

    #18278
    Yo el cambio de moneda lo gestiono sin complicaciones. Cobro, hago traspaso a IB, cambio a $ y compro acciones. Cuando viva del dividendo (si llega) iré convirtiendo lo que necesite de vuelta (o en bloques más grandes). Entiendo que a la larga el efecto moneda no tendrá demasiada influencia, y aunque lo tuviera, no es algo que pueda controlar ni anticipar en exceso.

    En cuanto a las acciones europeas, la filosofía es la misma. Elegir empresas core e ir comprando. Sí que es más complicado porque se siguen bastante menos, pero la estrategia no cambia.

    Gracias por los aportes, se agradecen mucho.

    Me he vuelto a leer todo el hilo y he sacar mucha info, supongo que dentro de un tiempo me lo volveré a leer porque da muchas ideas.

    Me gustaría hacer otra petición si no es mucha molestia, que sería:
    ¿Qué empresas consideráis CORE en moneda EURO y LIBRA para una cartera con Euros y libras?

    "No quiero dinero para comprar más cosas, quiero el dinero para comprar mi tiempo". Puedes ver mi evolución aquí.

    #18288

    Las mías están basadas en gran medida en los comentarios de LLuís (su filosofía es muy parecida a la de Chowder) aunque no las tengo tan claras como las americanas. En principio:

    Core: AMS:RDSA, AMS:UNA, ETR:ALV, EPA:ENGI, BME:ABE, BME:GAS, LON:DGE, LON:GSK, LON:RIO, VTX:NESN, VTX:ROG
    Resto: ETR:BAS, ETR:SIE, ETR:MUV2, AMS:UL, AMS:AD, EPA:SEV, EPA:MC, EBR:ABI, BME:BME, BME:MRL, BME:EBRO, BME:REE, LON:UU, LON:BLT, LON:BLND

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    #18423

    Un par de comentarios que vienen muy al hilo de últimos comentarios del foro:

    You know, I keep seeing comment after comment after comment from people talking about SO, KO and other companies who haven’t performed up to some sort of expectations that I have no clue as to what they were for them.

    I didn’t buy SO, KO and other companies thinking they would all outperform the market, I’m not that stupid to think that.

    I bought them for the safety of their dividend and when the recession comes, because the expectations were so low for them, they will help provide some ballast from keeping me from even considering a panic attack.

    Some of you are in for some very rough times when that correction comes. Your expectations are too high but you’ll learn this lesson as well. Recessions have a tendency to do that.

    I simply expect companies like KO, SO and others not to hurt me. I think it’s foolish to think everything we buy will be a market beating winner.

    So 5 years seems like a long time to turn a company around and get the price moving? I suppose you never heard of the Lost Decade and understand the ramifications of those 10 years?

    I’m telling you folks, some of you are in for a rough ride unless you can get your mind right.

    #18425

    Este sobre las valoraciones de las empresas, ya que no consiste en comprar a cualquier precio pese a lo que se podría interpretar erróneamente:

    >>> In this corner, saying valuation doesn’t matter one iota <<<

    What I’m saying is that valuation is predicting forward performance, and nobody can predict the future accurately on a consistent basis.
    If I thought valuation doesn’t matter one iota, I would have purchased AMZN by now.

    If I thought valuation didn’t matter one iota I wouldn’t spend hours every month looking up fair value numbers for 100 companies via Morningstar, Valuentum, S&P and ValuEngine. I don’t make a move without those numbers.

    It’s how we react to those valuations that is screwed up.

    Some people insist on using historical information and I insist on considering the current condition of the market.

    Some people insist on only buying at a deep discount to fair value and I insist on paying a small premium if necessary to own companies performing better than expected.

    Your own DG50 portfolio has borne that out. The companies that most contributors said they wouldn’t recommend buying at the time due to valuations are some of your best performers because you were forced to pay the premium and you benefited as a result of stepping up and paying that premium.
    Most examples that are provided in articles about valuation are presented with a one and done purchase. You buy a full position today, never buy or sell any of it and then look at how it performed over 10 or 20 years. … Who invests that way? I certainly don’t.

    I will pay what I think … key word, think … might be a reasonable valuation. Then I manage my position based on company performance. I start with a 1/4 sized position, will average down one time only for another 1/4 sized position, and then average up from there, or there will be no more purchases.

    There will be many purchases made to a company over time, all at various price points, all with varying valuations, and if one is looking long term, what I say doesn’t matter one iota is what we pay today when looking back 20 years from now. Why does today’s entry carry so much more weight than the one I pay when I add 5 years from now, 10 years from now, 20 years from now?

    Where I differ from most people on SA with regard to valuation isn’t whether it matters or not – it does, but whether fair value is a price point or a price range, and where those who do consider price range, most would want to buy in the low end of that range or below, and I will buy in the high end of the range if company performance demands it. If a company comes out and beats on earnings and revenue, then it demands the premium I pay that others are unwilling to pay.

    A better discussion would be; does it matter if one pays a premium to fair value, or do we insist on always buying at a discount to fair value. Now that’s where you’ll get some varying viewpoints…

    #18429

    ¿Se puede ver en algun sitio la rentabilidad historica de Chowder?

    #18437
    ¿Se puede ver en algun sitio la rentabilidad historica de Chowder?

    Chowder no está interesado en comparar la rentabilidad total (“total return”) de su cartera con ningún índice (en su caso particular el S&P500). El se centra en los dividendos (“dividend income”) que genera su cartera y afirma que en ese sentido gana al índice de referencia por goleada.

    Entiendo que para un inversor con un marcado perfil value que busque acelerar en todo lo posible su camino hacia la IF esto suene a herejía. Al fin y al cabo deja las “capital gains” en un plano muy, muy secundario. Pero si el objetivo de uno es generar unos ingresos crecientes/fiables en el tiempo y olvidarse de la fluctuación de las cotizaciones o de tener que vender parte de sus acciones para mantener su nivel de vida su filosofía no suena nada descabellada.

    “As I said in the article, it’s all about me and my goals. … Heh, heh. I don’t want to sell shares to generate cash. I want to collect the dividends and leave the assets alone. I understand some will say I can sell shares because the cap appreciation was better, but I don’t want to have to sell. I want selling to be an option, but I prefer to hold the asset and harvest the income those assets generate”

    “I can only speak for me. When I take the capital gains, those shares are no longer generating income. I’ve killed off some of my golden geese. I don’t mind taking capital gains as an option, but I don’t want it to be a necessity because I might have to sell at a time when the market is in the middle of a crash, and I’ve been through 3 of those now. No fun! I’m looking to put myself, and others, in a position where all income needs are generated from dividends and take the emotional selling out of the equation.”

    Un optimista es un pesimista mal informado

    #18455

    Lo que dice Ruindog, yo no le he leído decirlo nunca (ni ningún interés en hacerlo porque se aleja de lo que quiere resaltar con su estrategia). Eso sí, él siempre habla del 8% de Total Return que es su objetivo anual.

    #18461
    Lo que dice Ruindog, yo no le he leído decirlo nunca (ni ningún interés en hacerlo porque se aleja de lo que quiere resaltar con su estrategia). Eso sí, él siempre habla del 8% de Total Return que es su objetivo anual.

    Hola Investing, toda la información está extraída de un artículo que Chowder tiene publicado en Seeking Alpha (Equity vs. Index Investing). Por que piensas que está en contradicción con su estrategia? A mi no me lo parece en absoluto.

     

    Un optimista es un pesimista mal informado

    #18466

    Igual no me he expresado bien, te daba la razón. Comentaba que era cierto lo que tú decías porque él considera que dar una cifra de su rendimiento despista de lo que quiere transmitir y lo que se persigue.

    Su intención es ayudar a quién quiera a crearse un sistema con reglas más o menos claras y un objetivo identificable. Que es básicamente lo que has explicado :).

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